Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Obama Elected 44th President of the United States
Barack Obama is projected to be elected the 44th President of the United States. He will be sworn in on January 20, 2009. Congratulations to Obama, President Elect on this historic day!
Monday, November 3, 2008
Final Vote Projection for 2008
Well, we are now down to the final day of the 2008 campaign. The presidential races in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania has tightened. Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado still show Obama with leads. McCain can not win without winning two of these states (and he must also win Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina. Florida and Ohio are projected to be barely Obama, however today's polls show the race tied. The projection formula shows North Carolina and Missouri as tossups. If I have to pick a winner I would say North Carolina goes to Obama and Missouri to McCain.
The final Vote Projections 2008 projections are as follows:
PRESIDENT (EVs): OBAMA 338, MCCAIN 174, TOSSUP 26
2008 SENATE PROJECTION: DEM 56 +7, REP 42 -7, IND 2 +0
2008 HOUSE PROJECTION: DEM 250 +14, REP 180 -19, TOSSUPS 5
2008 GOVERNOR PROJECTION: DEM 31 +1, REP 19 -1
Join me on election night as I update the map with actual results as they come in.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Vote Projections for 2 November 2008
The presidential race is tightening a little over the weekend as we are only two days from election day. Obama still leads in the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, however the lead is down to 5 or lower in these states. One metric to consider is whether the polls have Obama over 50% in a state. If he is at this state in the election, history says he will win that state. If you look back at the 2004 race, Kerry was not over 50% in Ohio, Florida. He currently has polls in most of the swing states showing him over 50%.
So, here is the bottom line. If on election day, Obama carries Virginia and Colorado, he will be the next president of the United States even if he does not win Florida and Ohio (which is is currently ahead in the polling anyway). Right now, his chances look better in Colorado than Virginia, so but we will likely find out the results of Virginia first on Tuesday.
So, here is the bottom line. If on election day, Obama carries Virginia and Colorado, he will be the next president of the United States even if he does not win Florida and Ohio (which is is currently ahead in the polling anyway). Right now, his chances look better in Colorado than Virginia, so but we will likely find out the results of Virginia first on Tuesday.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Vote Projections for 29 October 2008
The Presidential race is pretty stable with Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado plus all of the "blue" states from 2004 in Obama's column. Ohio, Florida, Montana and Nevada are barely Obama (<5% margin), and North Carolina, Missouri are tossups. If all the "leaning Obama" and tossup states ended up going for McCain, Obama would still win the election with 270 electoral votes. This is the reason McCain keeps on campaining in states that he is losing by double digits like Pennsylvania and Virginia. Also goes with the McCain approach. He likes to "roll the dice" as Obama has said.
There is movement towards the Democrates in the House of Representitives projection has increased to a net gain of 15 seats for Democrates, with 4 seats rated as tossups.
There is movement towards the Democrates in the House of Representitives projection has increased to a net gain of 15 seats for Democrates, with 4 seats rated as tossups.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Vote Projections for 27 October 2008
Only 8 days until election day and time is running out for McCain. Polls released over the weekend do not show a significant change, however several of the states have stabilized in tossup mode, such as North Dakota, Missouri, and North Carolina. So Obama has dipped a little but McCain has not gained any electoral votes. Virginia, Colorado appear to be still strong for Obama and McCain has essentially stopped competing there. McCain seems to be still competing strongly in Pennsylvania, despite double digit leads by Obama in PA polls. the McCain camp is doing some infighting and the blame game is starting. If there is not a signficant change in the polls over the next 3 days, it will not likely turn for McCain over the weekend.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Vote Projections for 23 October 2008
Lots of polls released today. Most notable is Indiana giving Obama a 10 point lead. A poll also has Obama ahead by 4 in Montana. So Obama has double digit leads in all "blue states" that Kerry won except New Hampshire (7 point lead). He also has double digit leads in the following "red states" - Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Indiana. For Ohio and Indiana, we will have to see if this lead holds. He has single digit leads in Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, and New Hampshire. The remaining states in play, Obama leads by <5 points (Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada. This is the current state of the race.
In the mean time, McCain keeps on hammering away on his mis-statement that Obama will raise taxes on "Joe the Plummer". Apparently he has said it so many times that nobody challenges it anymore. Obama is now visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Obama is for the most part campaigning only in the new former "red" swing states - Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. The interesting thing is Florida, which was recently considered too red to win by the Democrates, has now become potentially more winnable than Ohio.
In the mean time, McCain keeps on hammering away on his mis-statement that Obama will raise taxes on "Joe the Plummer". Apparently he has said it so many times that nobody challenges it anymore. Obama is now visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Obama is for the most part campaigning only in the new former "red" swing states - Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. The interesting thing is Florida, which was recently considered too red to win by the Democrates, has now become potentially more winnable than Ohio.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Vote Projections for 18 October 2008
The Presidential election has settled down for now, with the key battleground states being Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Look for the candidates to spend most of their time there in the last few weeks before November 4. Pennwylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and New Mexico appear to be Strong Obama and out of reach of McCain. Three other states could be added to the swing states as well (West Virginia, North Dakota and Georgia), but they are not there yet. New polls, while not tipping the projection to McCain in these states show ties in North Dakota and Ohio and McCain ahead by 2 in Flordia. Too soon to know if this is a trend.
In the Senate, we are now at 7 Dem seats gained and one tie. House now stands to gain 15 Dems and for Governors, the 2 seat gain by Republicans is now back to 0 (Washington and North Carolina back in Dem column).
In the Senate, we are now at 7 Dem seats gained and one tie. House now stands to gain 15 Dems and for Governors, the 2 seat gain by Republicans is now back to 0 (Washington and North Carolina back in Dem column).
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Presidential Debate 3
Senators Obama and McCain participated in the third and last debate of the 2008 campaign at Hoffstra University in Hempstead, NY. Although McCain may have had his strongest debate night, his performance was marked by signficant attacks on Obama, while Obama remained calm and cool. McCain often looked irritated, a little angry. The overall result was instant polls had Obama winning the debate, which may say more about who the polled folks support more than the performance of each candidate.
Several false statements by McCain were repeated during the debate including "Obama is going to raise your taxes" (not true for 95% of people), Obama "launched his campaign in William Ayers living room" (not true), ACORN "destroying the fabric of American democracy".
Obama's goal was to play the debate conservatively since he has a lead in the polls. Overall, there was no game changer in this debate. Only 16 days until Election Day!
Several false statements by McCain were repeated during the debate including "Obama is going to raise your taxes" (not true for 95% of people), Obama "launched his campaign in William Ayers living room" (not true), ACORN "destroying the fabric of American democracy".
Obama's goal was to play the debate conservatively since he has a lead in the polls. Overall, there was no game changer in this debate. Only 16 days until Election Day!
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Vote Projections for 15 October 2008
The trend to Obama continues. A couple surprising polls that I failed to mention last post was West Virginia (Obama by 8) and North Dakota (Obama by 2). Today we have Obama tied in North Carolina and Barely Obama in Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and North Dakota. If you take away the "Barley" states (1-4% lead), Obama wins with 336 EVs (270 needed to win).
In the Senate, Obama coattails may be having an effect. The current projection is that Dems will pick up 8 seats, however some of the races are very close. In addition, Saxby Chambliss (R, GA) is looking vulnerable against Martin (D). The closest races are Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Georgia.
In the Senate, Obama coattails may be having an effect. The current projection is that Dems will pick up 8 seats, however some of the races are very close. In addition, Saxby Chambliss (R, GA) is looking vulnerable against Martin (D). The closest races are Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Georgia.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Vote Projections for 9 October 2008
No significant changes in projections for President over the last few days. Missouri switches to Barely McCain with a new ARG poll showing McCain up by 3 points. North Carolina is still Barely McCain, however a new poll from Rassmussen has Obama ahead in North Carolina by 1 point. In Indiana, a new Rassmussen poll shows McCain widening his lead to 7 points (50%-43%), so Indiana switches to Weak McCain. We will have to see whether this is an outlier or whether McCain has a larger lead in Indiana. Colorado switches from Barely Obama to Weak Obama with a 6 point lead (51%-45%) in the latest Insider Advantage / Poll Position.
There are no major changes in the Senate, House or Governor races.
There are no major changes in the Senate, House or Governor races.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Second Presidential Debate - Nashville Tennessee
Barack Obama and John McCain debated in Nashville in a town hall format. There was minimal involvement by the audience. Despite what the pundits predicted, Obama seemed very comfortable in the setting, while McCain looked nervous, and a little uncomfortable, referring to Obama as "that one", striving to control himself from getting too irritated. McCain was quite aggressive, but the debate was not the game changer that McCain needed to change the race. Overall, Obama won the debate, as will be shown in the instant polls and other polls that will come out over the next days. The third and final debate was October 15 at Hoffstra University, Hempstead, NY that focuses on domestic policy.
Vote Projections for Tuesday, October 7 2008
Obama continues to lead in most swing states on the eve of the second Presidential debate today. His lead is surprisingly strong in Virginia, where he has a 10 point lead in the latest poll. His leads in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada are small, 1-5 points, however these states were leaning McCain less than a month ago. North Carolina flips to McCain, but only by 2 points (the previous poll had them tied).
Look for McCain to take risks with the debate to try to shake up the race since he is behind. McCain may even go on the attack even though the pundits think that you can't do that in the town hall format in Nashville Tennessee. Check back later for my assessment of who won the debate.
Look for McCain to take risks with the debate to try to shake up the race since he is behind. McCain may even go on the attack even though the pundits think that you can't do that in the town hall format in Nashville Tennessee. Check back later for my assessment of who won the debate.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Vice Presidential Debate - Biden vs. Palin
Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin debated on the campus of Washington University, St. Louis Missouri tonight. Palin was under alot of pressure to perform well due to her performance with interviews with Katie Couric and Charles Gibson over the last month. Palin held her own and probably alleviated concerns by the Republican base. Palin was folksy, but on the facts and issues, the debate goes to Biden. And according to a CNN poll, Biden won the debate 51%-36% among people who watched the debate. Overall, the debate probably did not do much for McCain but did resuscitate her image for Conservatives. However for Independents, Democrats, her image may already be too far gone.
Presidental state polls now show Obama ahead in all swing states (defined as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada. He also has a slim lead in North Carolina.
Presidental state polls now show Obama ahead in all swing states (defined as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada. He also has a slim lead in North Carolina.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Vote Projections for 1 October 2008
There were numerous State polls released today for President. Most polls show a significant trend towards Obama that is shifting all "swing" States into his column, and even shows Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio. Missouri is now rated as a tossup now. The most dramatic polls are from Quinnipaic University, which has Obama up in Pennsylvania by 15 points (54%-39%), and Obama up in Florida by 8 points (51%-43%). While these polls may be outliers, they confirm the trend and it is not a good one for McCain. Nationally, Obama is ahead by about 5 points.
The trend to Obama appears to be due to several areas. First, the economic crisis benefits Obama, which contributed to Obama's poll surge late last week. Second, McCain was erratic in his response to the economic crisis, suspending his campaign, then not really contributing much to the process, saying he would not debate, then saying he would debate. Third and most importantly, Obama won the debate according to the American people because he looked Presidential, showed he would stand up to McCain on foreign policy and that he had a good understanding of foreign policy. This was a surprise to some in the press who thought McCain won (certainly some in press said Obama won). Lastly, the Sarah Palin factor - she has lost significant credibility due to her interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric, particularly the Couric interview as her responses to questions were used almost verbatim by Tina Faye in SNL, which showed her responding in an almost incoherent way. All this has put Obama ahead in most of the swing states.
Tomorrow is the Vice Presidential debate which will be make or break for Palin.
The trend to Obama appears to be due to several areas. First, the economic crisis benefits Obama, which contributed to Obama's poll surge late last week. Second, McCain was erratic in his response to the economic crisis, suspending his campaign, then not really contributing much to the process, saying he would not debate, then saying he would debate. Third and most importantly, Obama won the debate according to the American people because he looked Presidential, showed he would stand up to McCain on foreign policy and that he had a good understanding of foreign policy. This was a surprise to some in the press who thought McCain won (certainly some in press said Obama won). Lastly, the Sarah Palin factor - she has lost significant credibility due to her interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric, particularly the Couric interview as her responses to questions were used almost verbatim by Tina Faye in SNL, which showed her responding in an almost incoherent way. All this has put Obama ahead in most of the swing states.
Tomorrow is the Vice Presidential debate which will be make or break for Palin.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Presidential Debate 1 - Oxford Mississippi
Senators Obama and McCain participated in the first Presidential debate held in Oxford Mississippi. Senator Obama held his own and more in foreign policy and took control of the debate for the most part and passed the Commander in Chief test. McCain was more emotional but looked uncomfortable on the stage and called Obama naive and said he lacked the knowledge and experience to be president. Is he shifting back to campaigning on "experience" rather than change? What was surprising however, was the fact that McCain attended the debate at all. McCain changed his position earlier today and decided to attend the debate even though an agreement on the banking deal was not imminent. McCain There appears to be a pattern of unpredictability here with the McCain campaign, and this effort appears to have backfired according to several conservative commentators.
Now to the latest polls, a new Rassmussen poll in Virginia has Obama leading 50-45%, accordingly Virginia now moves from tossup to weak Obama.
In the Senate, new polls now show Merkley (D) ahead of Smith (R) in the Oregon Senate race, increasing the Senate gains to 6 seats.
Now to the latest polls, a new Rassmussen poll in Virginia has Obama leading 50-45%, accordingly Virginia now moves from tossup to weak Obama.
In the Senate, new polls now show Merkley (D) ahead of Smith (R) in the Oregon Senate race, increasing the Senate gains to 6 seats.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Vote Projections for 25 September 2008
McCain suspends campaign? Yes, John McCain said he was suspending his campaign to work on the $700 billion financial industry bailout legislation and he said he may not show up for the debate on Friday if Congress does not pass a bill. Will Obama have to debate by himself in Mississippi tomorrow?
The polls are now moving Obama's way, which may have been why we saw McCain's "Hail Mary" pass to suspend his campaign and pospone the debate. A couple of changes to the presidential projections today. North Carolina is now rated a tossup, as a new poll has Obama ahead bo 2 points coupled with a poll earlier in the week that had McCain ahead by 3 points. Colorado has a new poll showing Obama ahead by 9 points. Ohio is very close, either tied or McCain by 1, but Ohio stays at Weak McCain for now.
In the Senate projections, one change is Begich (D) is now leading Ted Stephens (R) for Senate in Alaska by 50-44% according to the most recent poll. Ted Stephens' trial for corruption started today in Federal court.
The polls are now moving Obama's way, which may have been why we saw McCain's "Hail Mary" pass to suspend his campaign and pospone the debate. A couple of changes to the presidential projections today. North Carolina is now rated a tossup, as a new poll has Obama ahead bo 2 points coupled with a poll earlier in the week that had McCain ahead by 3 points. Colorado has a new poll showing Obama ahead by 9 points. Ohio is very close, either tied or McCain by 1, but Ohio stays at Weak McCain for now.
In the Senate projections, one change is Begich (D) is now leading Ted Stephens (R) for Senate in Alaska by 50-44% according to the most recent poll. Ted Stephens' trial for corruption started today in Federal court.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Vote Projections Updated 22 September 2008
Polls now show Obama pulling away from McCain in National polls, with most polls showing Obama ahead by 5 points. In the state polls, Virginia is trending to Obama and Colorado has a poll with Obama ahead by 10 points. We will have to see if this holds. If this trend continues, Obama will be in a good position and would not have to pick up Ohio or Florida to win the nomination. Pennsylvania remains close but still shows Obama ahead by about 3 points. Ohio and Florida are still showing McCain ahead by about 5 points.
In the Senate Hagan (D) is now ahead of Dole (R) for the North Carolina Senate seat, resulting in Democrats picking up a projected 6 seats.
In the Senate Hagan (D) is now ahead of Dole (R) for the North Carolina Senate seat, resulting in Democrats picking up a projected 6 seats.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Vote Projections 20 September 2008
Barack Obama has regained the electoral vote projection based on polls released yesterday showing Obama has leads in Pennsylvania and Iowa (previously tossups). In Ohio, a new poll shows Obama ahead by 2 points, but based on the last week of polling, the projection is now a tossup. Overall this was a good week for Obama for several reasons. First was the economic news which favors Obama. Second, the "Palin Factor" was wearing off, and third, the negative attacks from McCain and the perception that he was being dishonest or lying may have also affected McCain's slide.
No significant changes to the Senate, House or Governor projections.
No significant changes to the Senate, House or Governor projections.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Vote Projections for 11 September 2008
The candidates took a break today from campaigning to meet together at Ground Zero. But that did not stop the polls from coming in. McCain is now projected to pick up Ohio, Florida, which means the electoral map is now the same as the 2004 election except for Iowa and Colorado which are projected for Obama. Clearly hype from Sarah Palin has given McCain gains in the polls - it remains to be seen how long this effect lasts. Historically with this election, McCain has gained until he broke even with Obama, and then typically McCain loses ground. Could this be a cycle here?
There is a change in the Governor projections with Repoblican candidates pulling ahead for North Carolina and Washington.
There is a change in the Governor projections with Repoblican candidates pulling ahead for North Carolina and Washington.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
RNC Convention - Day 1
Not much to report on at the Republican National Convention as Hurricane Gustav forced Republicans to cancel most activities of their first day of their convention. This is because they were concerned of the public relations nightmare if Gustav caused major damage, given the performance of the current administration during Katrina.
The major story of the day was Vice President candidate Sarah Palin's 17 year old teanage daughter is 5 months pregnant. This seams to have no effect on the enthusiasm by the religious right wing of the Republican Party, who absolutely adore her, despite her lack of experience. There is some concern that Palin may not have been properly vetted by McCain, raising questions about his first major decision of his campaign. (Palin is currently under investigation for firing an Alaska public safety officer for refusing to fire a trooper who was her former brother-in-law (the trooper was divorcing her sister).
The latest tracking polls released today show Obama 6-9 points ahead of McCain in National polls, with Obama over 50% for the first time. Obama is also now ahead in Ohio and Florida by one point, for a lead of 313 electoral votes for Obama and 219 electoral-votes for McCain.
The major story of the day was Vice President candidate Sarah Palin's 17 year old teanage daughter is 5 months pregnant. This seams to have no effect on the enthusiasm by the religious right wing of the Republican Party, who absolutely adore her, despite her lack of experience. There is some concern that Palin may not have been properly vetted by McCain, raising questions about his first major decision of his campaign. (Palin is currently under investigation for firing an Alaska public safety officer for refusing to fire a trooper who was her former brother-in-law (the trooper was divorcing her sister).
The latest tracking polls released today show Obama 6-9 points ahead of McCain in National polls, with Obama over 50% for the first time. Obama is also now ahead in Ohio and Florida by one point, for a lead of 313 electoral votes for Obama and 219 electoral-votes for McCain.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
McCain Picks Sarah Palin for VP
In a surprise move, Sen. John McCain picked Ms. Sarah Palin for his Vice Presidential candidate, passing over Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty. Ms. Palin looks to be a play to try to win over former Hillary Clinton supporters, however she is very socially conservative, and opposes abortions even in the case of rape. She has only been Governor of Alaska for approximately 2 years. It remains to be seen if selecting an inexperienced candidate will hurt John McCain.
Friday, August 29, 2008
DNC Convention - Day 4
Barack Obama gave his acceptance speach in front of 85,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver last night, with a mix if hard hitting attacks on the last 8 years of Republican control of Washington, saying eight years is enough for the Republicans. It was a historic night for the Democrats, and his speach was preceded by Cheryl Crow, Stevie Wonder, Al Gore and others. Obama and Biden now head to battleground states for a bus tour through western Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.
John McCain will make in vice presidential selection known today in Dayton Ohio. Currently Pawlenty and Romney look to be out of the running, as they will not be in Ohio today. Speculation is the selection could be Tom Ridge, Joe Lieberman or Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Presendential polls show a slight gain for Obama as Ohio is considered a tossup and Colorado is weak Obama. Both states have conflicting close polls.
Some changes in the Senate projections this week. Al Franken has taken a 1 point lead on Sen. Norm Coleman (R) according to a recent poll. The race between Dole (R) and (D) Hagen is currently a tossup. As a result Democrats are projected to gain 6 seats with Republican seat in North Carolina potentially inreasing that gain to 7 seats.
John McCain will make in vice presidential selection known today in Dayton Ohio. Currently Pawlenty and Romney look to be out of the running, as they will not be in Ohio today. Speculation is the selection could be Tom Ridge, Joe Lieberman or Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Presendential polls show a slight gain for Obama as Ohio is considered a tossup and Colorado is weak Obama. Both states have conflicting close polls.
Some changes in the Senate projections this week. Al Franken has taken a 1 point lead on Sen. Norm Coleman (R) according to a recent poll. The race between Dole (R) and (D) Hagen is currently a tossup. As a result Democrats are projected to gain 6 seats with Republican seat in North Carolina potentially inreasing that gain to 7 seats.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
DNC Convention - Day 3
Bill Clinton gave an impressive speach making the case for Barack Obama and against Bush/McCain economic and foreign policies. His speach went a long way to bridging the gap between and Hillary and Obama supporters and unite the party. VP candidate Joe Biden gave a tough and speach about his roots in working class America and provided a clear contrast between Republican and Democratic policies.
Now to tonight and Obama's historic speach.
Now to tonight and Obama's historic speach.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
DNC Convention - Day 2
Today's DNC convention provided some sharper contrast with the Republicans, including speaches by Ed Rendell, Sen Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Mark Warner and former Governor Mark Warner (VA). For the most part the press focused on 1) whether Hillary supporters will support Obama and 2) Why don't the Democrats attack Republicans mnore. The McCain campaign has decided that attack ads are the way to go, and has featured several ads featuring Hillary attacking Obama on video. McCain is essentially using Hillary to try to get votes. Her speach was excellent, striking the appropriate balance of contrasting Obama with McCain and endorsing Obama.
No significant changes polls today, with Obama clinging to a narrow 3 point lead in the electoral vote count.
No significant changes polls today, with Obama clinging to a narrow 3 point lead in the electoral vote count.
Monday, August 25, 2008
DNC Convention - Day 1
The Democratic Party held day one of their convention today in Denver, with the highlights being Ted Kennedy's surprise appearance and Michelle Obama's speach. Ted Kennedy spoke energetically, and a tribute was paid to Ted prior to his appearance. Michelle Obama's speach was followed by a brief unscripted comments by her daughters and Barack via video feed from Kansas City. Day one had little about McCain, and focused on the positive.
Several states polls came out resulting in some changes. New Mexico is rated as a tossup, and Colorado goes back in the blue column. North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico are within 2 points or less based on the latest polls.
Only change in Senate polls is North Carolina is now rated a tossup.
Several states polls came out resulting in some changes. New Mexico is rated as a tossup, and Colorado goes back in the blue column. North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico are within 2 points or less based on the latest polls.
Only change in Senate polls is North Carolina is now rated a tossup.
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Obama Selects Biden as VP Running Mate
Democratic Presidential Nominee Barack Obama announced that Joseph Biden Jr, Senator from Delaware was his Vice Presidential running mate early Saturday monrning in a text message to supporters. The selection was kept a tightly held secret until 2 days before the Democratic National Committee convention, which starts on Monday in Denver.
Biden was likely selected because of his ability to go on the offensive against an increasingly negative campaign run by John McCain. He will allow Obama the ability to stay more positive. Biden also brings foreign policy experience and appeal to working class Americans to the ticket. He has also occaisionally been somewhat outspoken, and has made statements that suggest he may have some difficulty adhering to the strict message disipline of the Obama campaing. Obama and Biden held a joint rally at the steps of the Illinois State House in Springfield on Saturday.
Meanwile, new polls showed McCain closing the gap on Thursday in national polls, and pulling slightly ahead with Nevada and Ohio switching to weak McCain. By Friday however polls showed Obama again pulling ahead in national tracking polls, and regaining a small lead in a Nevada poll, to pull to a 266 electoral vote tie, with Montana rated as a tossup. So we are essentially dead even on the eve of the DNC convention and the VP pick. Should be interesting to see how much of a bounce Obama gets from the convention.
Biden was likely selected because of his ability to go on the offensive against an increasingly negative campaign run by John McCain. He will allow Obama the ability to stay more positive. Biden also brings foreign policy experience and appeal to working class Americans to the ticket. He has also occaisionally been somewhat outspoken, and has made statements that suggest he may have some difficulty adhering to the strict message disipline of the Obama campaing. Obama and Biden held a joint rally at the steps of the Illinois State House in Springfield on Saturday.
Meanwile, new polls showed McCain closing the gap on Thursday in national polls, and pulling slightly ahead with Nevada and Ohio switching to weak McCain. By Friday however polls showed Obama again pulling ahead in national tracking polls, and regaining a small lead in a Nevada poll, to pull to a 266 electoral vote tie, with Montana rated as a tossup. So we are essentially dead even on the eve of the DNC convention and the VP pick. Should be interesting to see how much of a bounce Obama gets from the convention.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Vote Projections for 19 August 2008
Polls are showing the presidential race tightening over the last week, likely due to McCain outspending Obama in swing states on ads. Obama was on vacation and McCain took the opportunity to attack. Obama still maintains about a 2-3 point national lead and a slim lead in the electoral votes of 286 to 246. New polls over the last week show McCain with small leads in several states that recently were for Obama, including Colorado, Missouri, Virginia and Indiana. Florida and North Carolina are now in the McCain camp as well.
The veepstakes are the #1 story right now with the Democratic front runners being Joe Biden (Senator, DE), Tim Kaine (Governor, VA), and Evan Baye (Senator, IN). Joe Biden seems to have the inside track as he provides significant foreign policy experience and would be effective in going on the attach against the Republicans and McCain. Obama will likely announce his VP pick tomorrow or Thursday. McCain's choice is less clear, but would likely be Mitt Romney (former Governor, MA), Tim Pawlenty (Governor, MN), Tom Ridge (former Governor, PA) or Joe Lieberman (Senator, CT). McCain will not announce his VP until after the Democratic National Committee convention next week.
No changes to the Senate projections, with Democrats still gaining 5 seats.
The veepstakes are the #1 story right now with the Democratic front runners being Joe Biden (Senator, DE), Tim Kaine (Governor, VA), and Evan Baye (Senator, IN). Joe Biden seems to have the inside track as he provides significant foreign policy experience and would be effective in going on the attach against the Republicans and McCain. Obama will likely announce his VP pick tomorrow or Thursday. McCain's choice is less clear, but would likely be Mitt Romney (former Governor, MA), Tim Pawlenty (Governor, MN), Tom Ridge (former Governor, PA) or Joe Lieberman (Senator, CT). McCain will not announce his VP until after the Democratic National Committee convention next week.
No changes to the Senate projections, with Democrats still gaining 5 seats.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
Vote Projections for 8 August 2008
President: Despite what appears to be some gains by McCain resulting from attack ads, Obama continues to hold a 4-6 point lead in national polls. In state polls, there is very little change over the last few weeks so we will have to wait and see if McCain is able to gain any states from his Paris Hilton - Brittney Spears adds. Obama continues to take criticism from the media because the pundits think he should have a 20 point lead right now, even though should his current lead hold out, he would have a landslide victory in the electoral college.
Senate: No changes here, with Oregon's senate seat rated a tossup and Alaska a DEM GAIN due to Ted Stephens's legal troubles.
Senate: No changes here, with Oregon's senate seat rated a tossup and Alaska a DEM GAIN due to Ted Stephens's legal troubles.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Vote Projections for 31 July 2008
President: Several polls out today - no significant changes except that Colorado is now put back into Obama's column with the 50-47% poll by Rassmussen taken around 21 July. Montana has a new poll showing Obama and McCain tied at 47 a piece. Ohio is now narrowly back to Obama (46-44%) with a new poll out by Quinnipaic. This suggests that the previous Ohio poll showing McCain ahead by 10% was likely an anomaly. In Florida however, Obama maintains a 2 point lead in a poll by Quinnipaic, suggesting that the previous poll showing the race tightening there may be correct. McCain had held about a 6 point margin in Florida for several weeks prior. Overall, Obama is showing small gains from his Middle East and Europe trip, which was to be expected given McCain's lackluster performance during Obama's trip.
Senate: The most significant poll shows that Risch (R) is ahead of LaRocco (D) by 10 points in the Idaho Senate seat being vacated by Larry Craig. No other changes to Senate projections.
Senate: The most significant poll shows that Risch (R) is ahead of LaRocco (D) by 10 points in the Idaho Senate seat being vacated by Larry Craig. No other changes to Senate projections.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Two polls from Rasmussen came out today showing Ohio and Florida have flipped sides in the Presidential Race. In Ohio, McCain is ahead 52-42 and in Florida, Obama is now ahead by 2 points (within the margin of error). Previously Obama was ahead in Ohio by about 2 points, and McCain was ahead in Florda by about 6. The Ohio poll is a little surprising, however last week's polls do show a little improvement in McCain's poll numbers. Obama's numbers will likely improve next week due to Obama's overseas trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and Europe. Obama is ahead in projected electoral votes by 328 to 208.
No change in Senate projections.
No change in Senate projections.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
No significant changes in presidential polls today except the Virginia race for president has a poll from Rassmussen showing McCain ahead 48-47%. Last poll in June had Obama ahead 49-47%, so this race is very tight. Obama leads McCain by 320 EVs to 215 EVs.
Senate projection has not changed with DEMs picking up 4 seats with the Oregon race still rated as a tossup. Senate races in Maine, Virginia show Susan Collins and Mark Warner with comfortable leads. A poll by Strategic Vision (Republican affiliated pollster) shows Senator Frank Loutenberg with a comfortable lead in New Jersey, however partison polls are not used in any projections to assure that there is no bias in the polls.
Senate projection has not changed with DEMs picking up 4 seats with the Oregon race still rated as a tossup. Senate races in Maine, Virginia show Susan Collins and Mark Warner with comfortable leads. A poll by Strategic Vision (Republican affiliated pollster) shows Senator Frank Loutenberg with a comfortable lead in New Jersey, however partison polls are not used in any projections to assure that there is no bias in the polls.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Poll Shows Obama Ahead in Nevada
For the first time since March, Obama is polling ahead in Nevada according to a Rassmusson poll released today showing Obama with 47% and McCain with 45%. In other polls, Obama leads McCain in Washington State by a 55 to 39%. McCain continues to hold a lead in Arkansas 52-39% according to the latest Rassmussen poll.
In the Senate, Elizabeth Dole maintains a comfortable lead over her opponent in North Carolina of 54-43%. Senate is projected as 54 DEM, 54 REP, 1 IND, 1 Tossup.
In the Senate, Elizabeth Dole maintains a comfortable lead over her opponent in North Carolina of 54-43%. Senate is projected as 54 DEM, 54 REP, 1 IND, 1 Tossup.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
California vs. Kansas
Two interesting polls came out today that show that the most solid blue and red states have really significant poll margins for the presidential race. A new poll by the Field Poll has Obama up in California by a 24 point margin (54-30%), while Rasmussen has McCain up in Kansas by a 23 point margin (58-35%). While the California margin is about what it was a month ago, the Kansas margin has increased from a 13 point margin just a week ago. So is this going to be another election where some parts of the country love Obama (i.e. the coasts and midwest) and others can't connect at all with him? What this points out is that California will definately be off-limits to McCain, and Kansas - well for all you folks who have read the book "What's the Matter with Kansas" know why Obama is not doing well there. Obama may change the rules about red states and blue states but that change will not likely extend to places like Kansas.
New polls came out for the Senate races in North Carolina, Kansas and Oregon, all Republican incumbents. Dole and Roberts are comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Kansas, and in Oregon and Gorden Smith (R) and Merkely (D) are dead heat at 46% each. So I have one Tossup in my projections with Democrats gaining 4 seats, and would likely pick up 5 seats if Gordan Smith loses Oregon's Senate seat.
New polls came out for the Senate races in North Carolina, Kansas and Oregon, all Republican incumbents. Dole and Roberts are comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Kansas, and in Oregon and Gorden Smith (R) and Merkely (D) are dead heat at 46% each. So I have one Tossup in my projections with Democrats gaining 4 seats, and would likely pick up 5 seats if Gordan Smith loses Oregon's Senate seat.
Obama Maintains Polls Lead in Swing States
Barack Obama has continued to maintain consistent but small leads in the polls for all of the traditional "swing states" from the last two presidential elections except Florida, plus Virginia and Colorado for well over 6 weeks now. He is also maintaining about a 5-point lead in the national polls. Over the last week, Obama has also added states such as Montana. Missouri is currently projected as a tossup, with two conflicting polls.
My current prediction for Democratic Veep is 1) Tim Kaine (Gov. VA); 2) Bill Richardson; 3) Hillary Clinton (Sen. NY) ranked in order of most likely to least likely. For the Republicans prediction is 1) Mitt Romney; 2) Tim Pawlenty (Gov. MN); Charlie Crist.
The House projections are now up and running, with Democrats projected to pick up 5 seats. Senate projection steady with Democrats picking up 4 seats.
My current prediction for Democratic Veep is 1) Tim Kaine (Gov. VA); 2) Bill Richardson; 3) Hillary Clinton (Sen. NY) ranked in order of most likely to least likely. For the Republicans prediction is 1) Mitt Romney; 2) Tim Pawlenty (Gov. MN); Charlie Crist.
The House projections are now up and running, with Democrats projected to pick up 5 seats. Senate projection steady with Democrats picking up 4 seats.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Obama Pulls Ahead in Swing States
Barack Obama is now ahead in polling for all the "swing" states except Florida and New Mexico (tied) - plus he is ahead in Virginia, Missouri, Colorado. This results in a projection of 309 Electoral Votes for Obama and 221 for McCain. Obama clearly has gotten a bump from the Democratic nomination fight ending - the question is whether this is a bump or a trend. Absent a game changer, this race is starting to look alot like the '96 Race with Clinton and Dole. In fact McCain and Dole are very similar candidates.
it was a good week for Obama. McCain's comment that he does not care how long the troops are in Iraq, then his clarification that what he meant was that it is ok if U.S. troops are in Iraq for as long as we were in Korea, as long as they are not shot at. Obama countered that it is not ok if we are straining the troops with 4+ deployments and spending $12 billion a month of taxpayer money. A losing argument for McCain. So the Republican surragates instead attach Obama as "exotic" (code word for foreign or african american) and complain that Obama folks call McCain "confused" because they think it is a code word for old and senile. When you can't win the argument you attack the media.
it was a good week for Obama. McCain's comment that he does not care how long the troops are in Iraq, then his clarification that what he meant was that it is ok if U.S. troops are in Iraq for as long as we were in Korea, as long as they are not shot at. Obama countered that it is not ok if we are straining the troops with 4+ deployments and spending $12 billion a month of taxpayer money. A losing argument for McCain. So the Republican surragates instead attach Obama as "exotic" (code word for foreign or african american) and complain that Obama folks call McCain "confused" because they think it is a code word for old and senile. When you can't win the argument you attack the media.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Obama Clinches Democratic Nomination
According to the AP Obama has enough delegates to clinch the nomination for President for the Democratic Party. NBC News and CNN projections have him just short of the nomination, however Obama is likely to gain additional delegates from South Dakota and Montana, plus additional superdelegates.
Obama is scheduled to give a major speach tonight in Minneapolis, at the location of the 2008 Republican National Convention. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to give a speach in New York City, however she is indicating she will not suspend her campaign. All indications are that her campaign is ending after today. John McCain is giving a speach in New Orleans tonight as well.
Obama is scheduled to give a major speach tonight in Minneapolis, at the location of the 2008 Republican National Convention. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to give a speach in New York City, however she is indicating she will not suspend her campaign. All indications are that her campaign is ending after today. John McCain is giving a speach in New Orleans tonight as well.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Florida and Michigan Delegations Seated, Hillary Wins Puerto Rico
Yesterday, the Democratic Party leaders seated all delegates for Florida and Michigan with each delegate allocated 0.5 votes toward nomination of the Democratic Presidential candidate. This has raised the number of delegates needed to win the nomination to 2,118.
Today Hillary Clinton easily won the Puerto Rico primary 68% to 32%, however there was a much lower turnout of vote, which means that Obama has retained his lead in the popular vote count.
Obama is now about 52 delegates shy of the nomination, including superdelegates.
Today Hillary Clinton easily won the Puerto Rico primary 68% to 32%, however there was a much lower turnout of vote, which means that Obama has retained his lead in the popular vote count.
Obama is now about 52 delegates shy of the nomination, including superdelegates.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Obama Regains Lead Against McCain in Projected Electoral Votes
Obama has a narrow lead in electoral votes, 263 to 259, based on the latest polls for the first time since early March. He has achieved this as a result of new polls by SurveyUSA showing Obama ahead in Ohio and Virginia (however I have Virginia rated as a tossup due to a poll 2 days earlier showing McCain ahead).
Obama is now ahead in the polls in the following "swing states" as defined during the 2004 election cycle: Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico. Obama is also ahead in Colorado.
In the Democratic nominating contest, Hillary Clinton was interviewed in South Dakota and made a statement that appeared to indicate that she was staying in the race because of the possibility that Obama could be assassinated. This statement, even though Clinton did not mean to say it likely is the final nail in the coffin for Hillary's campaign for Vice President (she has already effectively lost the nominating fight for President after clinching the pledged delegate majority with a win in Oregon). Now that does not mean that the Obama campaign will not talk to Hillary about the VP position. There are alot of Democrats who want to see Hillary on the ticket, however this option can not be excercised due to her high negatives and the fact that it would take away from Obama's change message.
Obama is likely to consider the following VPs: Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio; Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia; Jim Webb, Senator of Virginia; Chuck Hagel, Republican Senator of Nebraska (surprise); Sam Nunn, former Senator of Georgia.
Obama is now ahead in the polls in the following "swing states" as defined during the 2004 election cycle: Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico. Obama is also ahead in Colorado.
In the Democratic nominating contest, Hillary Clinton was interviewed in South Dakota and made a statement that appeared to indicate that she was staying in the race because of the possibility that Obama could be assassinated. This statement, even though Clinton did not mean to say it likely is the final nail in the coffin for Hillary's campaign for Vice President (she has already effectively lost the nominating fight for President after clinching the pledged delegate majority with a win in Oregon). Now that does not mean that the Obama campaign will not talk to Hillary about the VP position. There are alot of Democrats who want to see Hillary on the ticket, however this option can not be excercised due to her high negatives and the fact that it would take away from Obama's change message.
Obama is likely to consider the following VPs: Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio; Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia; Jim Webb, Senator of Virginia; Chuck Hagel, Republican Senator of Nebraska (surprise); Sam Nunn, former Senator of Georgia.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Obama Wins Decisive Victory in North Carolina, Clinton Barely Wins in Indiana
Barack Obama won the North Carolina Democratic Primary 56% to 42%, a decisive victory for him on Tuesday. The Indiana primary was surprisingly close, with Clinton winning by about 14,000 votes as the contest was too close to call until after midnight. Since Obama exceeded expectations in both states, these contests all but assured Obama the electoral vote and the nomination. The Tuesday primaries put Obama within 177 delegates of winning the 2024 delegates needed to win the nomination (including superdelegates). To win a majority of the pledged delegates, Clinton would have to win 84% of the remaining pledged delegates.
Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign over $6 million last month and is in financial trouble as well, however she vowed to fight on. Look for her to quit the race by early June, or the superdelegates will push her out by then.
Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign over $6 million last month and is in financial trouble as well, however she vowed to fight on. Look for her to quit the race by early June, or the superdelegates will push her out by then.
Monday, May 5, 2008
North Carolina and Indiana - After tomorrow the last significant delegates are of the super variety
As we have learned over this long primary campaign, interpretation of trends over the last day or so are critical when projecting results in the Democratic Primary. This clearly was the case in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania where Clinton gained support over the last day or so. Current polls indicate a very slight shift towards Obama in Indiana and towards Clinton in North Carolina. My projection is Obama +8 in North Carolina and Clinton +6 in Indiana.
A split tomorrow will be considered a win for Obama, even though it means Hillary will continue. This is because Obama is closing in on the magic number of 2024 delegates needed to win (he currently needs 268. There still is a constant trickle of Superdelegates endorsing Obama, even with several endorsing Clinton (5-2 in favor of Obama over the weekend). Assuming Obama picks up 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he would only need 75 of the remaining 268 uncommitted Superdelegates to win.
Once tomorrow is over the Superdelegates have enough information to select a candidate - will they do so or wait to the last minute?
A split tomorrow will be considered a win for Obama, even though it means Hillary will continue. This is because Obama is closing in on the magic number of 2024 delegates needed to win (he currently needs 268. There still is a constant trickle of Superdelegates endorsing Obama, even with several endorsing Clinton (5-2 in favor of Obama over the weekend). Assuming Obama picks up 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he would only need 75 of the remaining 268 uncommitted Superdelegates to win.
Once tomorrow is over the Superdelegates have enough information to select a candidate - will they do so or wait to the last minute?
Friday, April 25, 2008
Who is stronger in November - Clinton or Obama?
Over the last days since Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, Hillary and her talking head supporters have been trying to make several argument to the superdelegates and public on why she should be nominated, despite an insurmountable lead by Obama in the pledged delegates.
One of her arguments is that Hillary is stronger in the general election because she won Pennsylvania and Ohio (she even had Lanny Davis on CNN stating that the latest poll has Obama losing to McCain in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts - check the map on this site to see the latest poll showing Obama ahead against McCain in both those states). The New York Times has an article yesterday based on an analysis of the exit poll data show that Obama would likely pick up majorities and win against McCain in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As this site demonstrates, state matchups for Obama and Clinton against McCain shows a close race for both Obama and Clinton against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania polls. While Obama is slightly behind in Ohio according to the latest poll, Obama has several states that he would likely have an easier time winning than Clinton, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia. Once the primary is over and the Democrats come together to support one candidate, Obama will likely improve his support in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don't buy MSNBCs exit polling data indicating that about 50% of Clinton supporters would not vote for Obama in November - this is a response to the heated primary, Clinton supporters should come around to support Obama eventually. Furthermore, one has to consider that independents could not vote in Pennsylvania, and the recent surge in Democratic voters should help the Democratic nominee as well.
Hillary Clinton now says she has more overall votes than Obama by counting Michigan and Florida votes, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both states were disqualified and no campaigning was conducted in these states. As we all know Obama continues to hold the lead in the popular vote and pledged delegates for all states with fair contests. The Florida and Michigan results are no better that the latest SurveyUSA opinion polls.
Clinton supports have repeated on the talk shows over and over again that since the general election uses a state winner take all system, that superdelegates should consider who wins if the rules were changed to reflect the electory system used in the general election. The idea is that Obama would not win any of the states he lost to Clinton in November. This claim does not hold water either, no comparison can be made between the primaries and the general election.
Bottom line is I believe Obama will be the stronger candidate in November against McCain. Most Americans, Democrates, Republicans and Independents alike agree with this.
One of her arguments is that Hillary is stronger in the general election because she won Pennsylvania and Ohio (she even had Lanny Davis on CNN stating that the latest poll has Obama losing to McCain in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts - check the map on this site to see the latest poll showing Obama ahead against McCain in both those states). The New York Times has an article yesterday based on an analysis of the exit poll data show that Obama would likely pick up majorities and win against McCain in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As this site demonstrates, state matchups for Obama and Clinton against McCain shows a close race for both Obama and Clinton against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania polls. While Obama is slightly behind in Ohio according to the latest poll, Obama has several states that he would likely have an easier time winning than Clinton, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia. Once the primary is over and the Democrats come together to support one candidate, Obama will likely improve his support in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don't buy MSNBCs exit polling data indicating that about 50% of Clinton supporters would not vote for Obama in November - this is a response to the heated primary, Clinton supporters should come around to support Obama eventually. Furthermore, one has to consider that independents could not vote in Pennsylvania, and the recent surge in Democratic voters should help the Democratic nominee as well.
Hillary Clinton now says she has more overall votes than Obama by counting Michigan and Florida votes, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both states were disqualified and no campaigning was conducted in these states. As we all know Obama continues to hold the lead in the popular vote and pledged delegates for all states with fair contests. The Florida and Michigan results are no better that the latest SurveyUSA opinion polls.
Clinton supports have repeated on the talk shows over and over again that since the general election uses a state winner take all system, that superdelegates should consider who wins if the rules were changed to reflect the electory system used in the general election. The idea is that Obama would not win any of the states he lost to Clinton in November. This claim does not hold water either, no comparison can be made between the primaries and the general election.
Bottom line is I believe Obama will be the stronger candidate in November against McCain. Most Americans, Democrates, Republicans and Independents alike agree with this.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania, margin in single digits
Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania, for a net gain of about 15 delegates. The margin of victory was a little higher than the latest polls, 55-45%. This sets up the next primarys, on May 5 in North Carolina, where Obama is favored by about 15%, and Indiana where he is favored by 5%.
Mr. Obama will likely make up all of the delegates he lost in Pennsylvania and then some if he wins North Carolina and/or Indiana. This scenario virtually guarantees that Obama will win the pledged delegate count - with only 445 pledged delegates left she has to win 67% of the remaining pledged delegates to surpass Obama in this category.
It is also increasingly unlikely that he will not win the popular vote, even if Florida results are factored in, unless she wins Indiana and keeps North Carolina very close, which is not likely to be case. As has been the case since March, the odds of Clinton winning the nomination remain very low.
Mr. Obama will likely make up all of the delegates he lost in Pennsylvania and then some if he wins North Carolina and/or Indiana. This scenario virtually guarantees that Obama will win the pledged delegate count - with only 445 pledged delegates left she has to win 67% of the remaining pledged delegates to surpass Obama in this category.
It is also increasingly unlikely that he will not win the popular vote, even if Florida results are factored in, unless she wins Indiana and keeps North Carolina very close, which is not likely to be case. As has been the case since March, the odds of Clinton winning the nomination remain very low.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Obama takes train ride from Philadelphia to Harrisburg
Barack Obama and Senator Bob Casey took a train ride from Philadelphia to Harrisburg, with a stop in Paoli, PA where he spoke at the train station. The polls in Pennsylvania have narrowed significantly, with Clinton leading Obama by 3-4 points.
Obama is now leading in Indiana by 5 points and North Carolina by 15 points. Obama is also leading against Clinton and McCain in national polls as well.
Clinton has been doing more damage to herself by going on the attack and getting press for her negative attacks, which mutes any damage that the original controversy has had. As a result, after about 4 days of attacks, Obama generally gains ground on Clinton.
Howard Dean, the DNC Chairman said that he needs Superdelegates to start making their choice for president now and he sees no reason why all Superdelegates could not make their choice by June 3 when the last primary is held. This approach would allow a nominee to be determined by some time in May, if the Superdelegates cooporated.
Check back soon for a state by state summary of competetive races and projections.
Obama is now leading in Indiana by 5 points and North Carolina by 15 points. Obama is also leading against Clinton and McCain in national polls as well.Clinton has been doing more damage to herself by going on the attack and getting press for her negative attacks, which mutes any damage that the original controversy has had. As a result, after about 4 days of attacks, Obama generally gains ground on Clinton.
Howard Dean, the DNC Chairman said that he needs Superdelegates to start making their choice for president now and he sees no reason why all Superdelegates could not make their choice by June 3 when the last primary is held. This approach would allow a nominee to be determined by some time in May, if the Superdelegates cooporated.
Check back soon for a state by state summary of competetive races and projections.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Projections are made using the latest polls, using an average of the latest polls over the last 10 days (using the approximate mid point of the polling period as the date of the poll). If no polls exist within the last 10 days, then the latest poll is used to project the race. If there are no polls at all, then the actual results from the last election cycle are used to project the race.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Obama widens lead in North Carolina, Clinton lead in PA narrows
The issue with Obama's pastor, which did some damage to the polls last week seems to have run its course, and Hillary Clinton's negatives in polls have gone up significanlty while Obama's negatives have gone up only slightly.
Obama is currently up accourding to the latest poll in North Carolina by 21 points, up from one point last week. Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania has gone from 16 points to 10 points, narrowing a bit.
Hillary Clinton now needs 64% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to pull even on pledged delegates, now that Florida and Michigan re-votes are off the table.
Obama is currently up accourding to the latest poll in North Carolina by 21 points, up from one point last week. Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania has gone from 16 points to 10 points, narrowing a bit.
Hillary Clinton now needs 64% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to pull even on pledged delegates, now that Florida and Michigan re-votes are off the table.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Obama takes additional Iowa delegates at Iowa State Convention
Barrack Obama received additional delegates at the Iowa Democratic state convention, which was held on Saturday. The delegates were originally pledged delegates for other candidates that dropped out of the race. Obama netted 9 delegates in the race for pledged delegates with Clinton. The current pledged delegate count is now Obama 1410 and Clinton 1240.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Obama wins Mississippi, campaigns move on to Pennsylvania
Obama won Mississippi, by 61% to 38%, picking up 19 delegates to Clinton's 14. Exit polling showed Clinton winning in Republican areas of the state, likely due to significant Republican crossover voters. Which means that Obama's margin could have been higher if Rush Limbaugh had not called on Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary.
New polls in Pennsylvania show Clinton maintaining a double digit lead. Obama has his work cut out in Pennsylvania if he wants to make it close. There is a significant amount of time, however as Pennsylvania's primary (the next primary) is on 26 April, so there is some time.
In other political news, Geraldine Ferraro resigned her position in the Clinton campaign, but not after stating that her statement “if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position” was a "statement of fact". Apparently some version of this argument was repeated over the last few weeks in various media outlets. Most white voters support Obama not because he is black, but because they believe he is a leader, who can bring people together to get things done.
Is this similar to language used by Bill Clinton after New Hampshire primary in South Carolina? By the way, Ferraro made a similar statement in 1984 about Jesse Jackson. She also stated that she whould not have been the VP nominee in 1984 if she had not been a woman. She can say this about herself, but maybe she should not speak for the millions of white and Latino people who have voted for Obama in the election so far.
New polls in Pennsylvania show Clinton maintaining a double digit lead. Obama has his work cut out in Pennsylvania if he wants to make it close. There is a significant amount of time, however as Pennsylvania's primary (the next primary) is on 26 April, so there is some time.
In other political news, Geraldine Ferraro resigned her position in the Clinton campaign, but not after stating that her statement “if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position” was a "statement of fact". Apparently some version of this argument was repeated over the last few weeks in various media outlets. Most white voters support Obama not because he is black, but because they believe he is a leader, who can bring people together to get things done.
Is this similar to language used by Bill Clinton after New Hampshire primary in South Carolina? By the way, Ferraro made a similar statement in 1984 about Jesse Jackson. She also stated that she whould not have been the VP nominee in 1984 if she had not been a woman. She can say this about herself, but maybe she should not speak for the millions of white and Latino people who have voted for Obama in the election so far.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Obama has significant lead in Mississippi polls, primary is Tuesday
Polls show Obama with a significant lead in Mississippi on the eve of the primary there. Obama's lead in the polls range from 6-24% margin over the last 3 days. His margin, while likely to be high due to the African American vote, may be slightly be offset by Mississippi's proximity to Arkansas, where Clinton is very popular. My projection is Obama wins 63% of the vote in Mississippi.
And then on to Pennsylvania ...
And then on to Pennsylvania ...
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Obama Wins Wyoming Caucus
Obama won the Wyoming Caucus 61% to 38% on Saturday. Obama picked up 7 delegates and Clinton 4 delegates. Additional Mississippi polls show a strong lead for Obama and North Carolina polls show a weaker lead for Obama in North Carolina. No new polling data has been released for Pennsylvania.
The Wyoming victory for Obama means that Clinton has to win the remaining states by an average of 67% of the vote in order to secure a majority of pledged delegates, which will be exceedingly difficult. If Florida and Michigan revotes are included, then Clinton can win a majority of pledged delegates with 60% of remaining vote.
No delegate counts are in for Texas caucus yet, however with 41% of the caucus vote counted, Obama is leading 56% to 44%, which if it holds, would net Obama delegates for the combined primary and caucus in Texas.
The Wyoming victory for Obama means that Clinton has to win the remaining states by an average of 67% of the vote in order to secure a majority of pledged delegates, which will be exceedingly difficult. If Florida and Michigan revotes are included, then Clinton can win a majority of pledged delegates with 60% of remaining vote.
No delegate counts are in for Texas caucus yet, however with 41% of the caucus vote counted, Obama is leading 56% to 44%, which if it holds, would net Obama delegates for the combined primary and caucus in Texas.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Wyoming Caucus is Today
There are no polls for the Wyoming caucus, so I have to go with the conventional wisdom and say that Obama will win this caucus, but the margin is difficult to predict given the upheaval in the Democratic race. However a recent poll shows Obama ahead in Mississippi by 46-40%.
There has been a lot of talk in the media about Clinton winning big states, or more important "swing" states, that some states are more important than others, and caucus states are not democratic, or that she would be more likely to win in November etc. This argument is presented by the Clinton campaign because it is becoming increasingly likely that the only way for Clinton to win the nomination is with a superdelegate solution - that is to have the superdelegates override the election results in the primaries and caucuses to win the nomination.
Currently Clinton will need to win 66% of the vote in the remaining contests if Florida and Michigan are not included in the delegate totals. If the Florda and Michigan contests are redone, Clinton will need 60% of the vote going forward. I have provided this calculation in the delegate tracking sheet on this site and will update it as additional contests occur. Assuming that the superdelegates do not override the popular vote totals, we will be able to say that Obama "clinches" the nomination once Clinton needs to win more than 100% of the remaining vote.
The Democratic nomination for president proportionally allocates delegates, and is not based on a "winner take all" allocation of delegates like the Republican nomination and General Election for president.
There has been a lot of talk in the media about Clinton winning big states, or more important "swing" states, that some states are more important than others, and caucus states are not democratic, or that she would be more likely to win in November etc. This argument is presented by the Clinton campaign because it is becoming increasingly likely that the only way for Clinton to win the nomination is with a superdelegate solution - that is to have the superdelegates override the election results in the primaries and caucuses to win the nomination.
Currently Clinton will need to win 66% of the vote in the remaining contests if Florida and Michigan are not included in the delegate totals. If the Florda and Michigan contests are redone, Clinton will need 60% of the vote going forward. I have provided this calculation in the delegate tracking sheet on this site and will update it as additional contests occur. Assuming that the superdelegates do not override the popular vote totals, we will be able to say that Obama "clinches" the nomination once Clinton needs to win more than 100% of the remaining vote.
The Democratic nomination for president proportionally allocates delegates, and is not based on a "winner take all" allocation of delegates like the Republican nomination and General Election for president.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Clinton Wins Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Obama Wins Vermont
Hillary Clinton won Ohio and Rhode Island by a larger margin than projected by this site, and won Texas by a slim margin (I had projected Obama by 4%). Clinton's margins were 18% in Rhode Island, 10% in Ohio, and 3% in Texas. Obama won Vermont by 18%, which was similar to my projection. Delegate counts for Texas have not been tallied, however for Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, Clinton has a net gain of 7 delegates, which may be offset by a gain in delegates by Obama in Texas.
Based on the a review of the recent polls, it appears that Clinton gained support in both Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas over the last few days, which is why she won the Texas primary and had a much higher margin than my projections (and some of the polls) for Ohio and Rhode Island. After reviewing the trends in the polls over the last week, it is apparent that Clinton was gaining support over the last few days. My projection for Texas for example, was based on average polls over the last 7 days and showed Obama with a 1 point lead. Average polls over the last 3 days showed Clinton with a 1% lead and average polls of 1 day showed Clinton with a 3% lead. Ohio did not show any significant change over that time, staying around 5-6% lead for Clinton, however the polls were all over the map over the last few days.
Given yesterday's results, I am going to adjust my projection formula so it will be more accurate in future projections. At this point I am leaning towards averaging polls over the last 3 days, unless no polls are available during that period I will take the latest poll available and use that. If no polls are available, I am using results from the last election cycle. Any comments are welcome on this formula, as I work to improve the projection model. I will post an update to the model shortly, along with an analysis of the net gain of delegates once they are determined in Texas.
Based on the a review of the recent polls, it appears that Clinton gained support in both Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas over the last few days, which is why she won the Texas primary and had a much higher margin than my projections (and some of the polls) for Ohio and Rhode Island. After reviewing the trends in the polls over the last week, it is apparent that Clinton was gaining support over the last few days. My projection for Texas for example, was based on average polls over the last 7 days and showed Obama with a 1 point lead. Average polls over the last 3 days showed Clinton with a 1% lead and average polls of 1 day showed Clinton with a 3% lead. Ohio did not show any significant change over that time, staying around 5-6% lead for Clinton, however the polls were all over the map over the last few days.
Given yesterday's results, I am going to adjust my projection formula so it will be more accurate in future projections. At this point I am leaning towards averaging polls over the last 3 days, unless no polls are available during that period I will take the latest poll available and use that. If no polls are available, I am using results from the last election cycle. Any comments are welcome on this formula, as I work to improve the projection model. I will post an update to the model shortly, along with an analysis of the net gain of delegates once they are determined in Texas.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Obama Maintains Lead in Texas, Clinton in Ohio, Delegate Projections Favor Obama However
Obama has a slim lead of about 2 points in Texas with Clinton holding a weak lead in Ohio of about 5 points. As a result I am projecting that Obama will win the Texas primary by a 4 point margin tomorrow, and Clinton will win the Ohio primary by a 4 point margin.
In order to estimate the number of delegates gained, we must understand the Texas system for selecting delegates to the Democratic Nomination. The Texas system includes a primary which voters will choose 126 delegates allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4. A caucus is then held for voters who voted in the primary after the polls close to chose 42 delegates. Texas also has 25 pledged "party delegates" allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention. Texas also has 35 unpledged "super delegates" of party and elected officials.
The number of delegates gained in each Texas senatorial district for the primary is determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential campaign and Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006. As a result, areas that are more likely to vote for Obama such as Dallas, Houston, Austin get more delegates than areas that have more Clinton support (Republican areas), which may result in Obama picking up significantly more delegates than his vote margin would suggest. This makes projecting the delegates gained very difficult.
So here goes with the delegate projections:
Texas:
Primary - Obama 73-53
Caucus - Obama 37-30*
Total Texas - Obama 110-83; Obama +27
* Caucus delegates are projected, however actual delegates for each candidate are selected at State Convention.
Ohio: Clinton 73, Obama 68; Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama 9, Clinton 6; Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton 12, Obama 9; Clinton +3
Total Delegate Margin March 4 Primaries/Caucuses: Obama 196, Clinton 174; Obama +22
I will update this estimate if new information or polls come in.
In order to estimate the number of delegates gained, we must understand the Texas system for selecting delegates to the Democratic Nomination. The Texas system includes a primary which voters will choose 126 delegates allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4. A caucus is then held for voters who voted in the primary after the polls close to chose 42 delegates. Texas also has 25 pledged "party delegates" allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention. Texas also has 35 unpledged "super delegates" of party and elected officials.
The number of delegates gained in each Texas senatorial district for the primary is determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential campaign and Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006. As a result, areas that are more likely to vote for Obama such as Dallas, Houston, Austin get more delegates than areas that have more Clinton support (Republican areas), which may result in Obama picking up significantly more delegates than his vote margin would suggest. This makes projecting the delegates gained very difficult.
So here goes with the delegate projections:
Texas:
Primary - Obama 73-53
Caucus - Obama 37-30*
Total Texas - Obama 110-83; Obama +27
* Caucus delegates are projected, however actual delegates for each candidate are selected at State Convention.
Ohio: Clinton 73, Obama 68; Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama 9, Clinton 6; Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton 12, Obama 9; Clinton +3
Total Delegate Margin March 4 Primaries/Caucuses: Obama 196, Clinton 174; Obama +22
I will update this estimate if new information or polls come in.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
The Trend to Obama Continues
Over the last month a pattern has emerged - as the primary for a particular state nears, Obama continues to narrow Clinton's lead in key states, eventually to overtake her by the time the primary rolls around. This pattern is holding true for Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the last key states that Clinton would need to sweep if she has any chance to capture the Democratic Nomination.
The latest polls in Texas give a slight edge to Obama (Clinton leads in latest poll 47% to 43%, however the average over the last week has Obama ahead). In Ohio, Clinton has the lead 50% to 44%. In Pennsylvania, a new poll from Rassmussen has Clinton ahead by only 4%, or 46% to 42%.
For Obama vs. McCain, I am projecting McCain 266 electoral votes and Obama 264 electoral votes, with Pennsylvania narrowly in the McCain column, and Ohio, Iowa and Colorado in the Obama column. New Mexico rated as a tossup. All other states are in the same column as in 2004.
The latest polls in Texas give a slight edge to Obama (Clinton leads in latest poll 47% to 43%, however the average over the last week has Obama ahead). In Ohio, Clinton has the lead 50% to 44%. In Pennsylvania, a new poll from Rassmussen has Clinton ahead by only 4%, or 46% to 42%.
For Obama vs. McCain, I am projecting McCain 266 electoral votes and Obama 264 electoral votes, with Pennsylvania narrowly in the McCain column, and Ohio, Iowa and Colorado in the Obama column. New Mexico rated as a tossup. All other states are in the same column as in 2004.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Texas in Dead Heat for DEM Nomination; Ohio Polls Show DEM Lead for President
The latest polls show Texas is a tossup for the Democratic Nomination for President and Clinton has a small lead in Ohio. Texas delegate rules call for districts that vote heavily Democratic in the general election (such as Houston, Dallas) get a highter proportion of delegates than areas that vote Republican. As a result, Obama will likely get more delegates than Clinton even if he does not win the popular vote in Ohio. As a result of this and the polls that show Obama may also win the popular vote in Texas, I am projecting that Obama will win the Democratic nomination at this time. Hence you will now see the Obama vs. McCain map come up first on this site.
For the first time, polls show a lead for Obama vs. McCain in Ohio, a critical swing state. Interestly, the SurveyUSA polls show a larger lead for Clinton vs. McCain (52%-42%)than for Obama vs. McCain (47%-44%), but that is consistent with the current polls in the Democratic Primary at this time. Accordingly, I am projecting Ohio will go Democratic.
The Democratic debate was more civil than I expected-- I think Clinton recognized that the downside to being too agressive was worse than the upside.
It will be interesting to see what the impact of the New York Times article on McCain's relationship with lobbyists has on polls. We will not know for about a week.
For the first time, polls show a lead for Obama vs. McCain in Ohio, a critical swing state. Interestly, the SurveyUSA polls show a larger lead for Clinton vs. McCain (52%-42%)than for Obama vs. McCain (47%-44%), but that is consistent with the current polls in the Democratic Primary at this time. Accordingly, I am projecting Ohio will go Democratic.
The Democratic debate was more civil than I expected-- I think Clinton recognized that the downside to being too agressive was worse than the upside.
It will be interesting to see what the impact of the New York Times article on McCain's relationship with lobbyists has on polls. We will not know for about a week.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Obama Wins Big in Wisconsin, Hawaii
Barack Obama won an impressive victory in Wisconsin, by a margin of 17 percentage points, and almost 50 points in his childhood state of Hawaii on Tuesday. These wins, which now are 10 contests in a row for Obama make it unlikely that Clinton will be able to recover to gain the Democratic Nomination.
Meanwhile, the latest polls show the Ohio race tightening, as expected. The polls also continue to show Obama with wider margins than Clinton against McCain. The media is asking the question "What has Clinton done wrong?. I would argue Clinton's troubles are more about what Obama is doing than what Clinton is doing.
Over the next days, I plan to summarize the positions of Clinton and Obama on this page, in respose to questions by the media and some of the candidates'
Meanwhile, the latest polls show the Ohio race tightening, as expected. The polls also continue to show Obama with wider margins than Clinton against McCain. The media is asking the question "What has Clinton done wrong?. I would argue Clinton's troubles are more about what Obama is doing than what Clinton is doing.
Over the next days, I plan to summarize the positions of Clinton and Obama on this page, in respose to questions by the media and some of the candidates'
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Dem Race in Texas is Tightening
Senator Barrack Obama is in a competitive race in Texas. A new poll gives Hillary Clinton only a 2-point lead in Texas, which is a significant changes from just a week ago. On the eve of the Wisconsin primary, that race may be getting closer as well, depending on which polls you look at.
It should be another interesting night tomorrow in Wisconsin, but I am predicting Obama will win Wisconsin by 6 percentage points. Wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii tomorrow should position Obama to be the nominee at the convention if the Democratic "superdelegates" do the right thing and vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primaries in June. So in June, remaining superdelegates who have not endorsed should declare for the winner of the popular vote at that time and not wait for the convention in the end of August.
This all will be a moot issue if Obama wins Texas or Ohio and Pennsylvania.
It should be another interesting night tomorrow in Wisconsin, but I am predicting Obama will win Wisconsin by 6 percentage points. Wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii tomorrow should position Obama to be the nominee at the convention if the Democratic "superdelegates" do the right thing and vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primaries in June. So in June, remaining superdelegates who have not endorsed should declare for the winner of the popular vote at that time and not wait for the convention in the end of August.
This all will be a moot issue if Obama wins Texas or Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Obama wins 8th in a Row
Barack Obama is on a roll, winning eight primaries / caucuses in a row and building a lot of momentum in preparation for the Wisconsin primary on February 19, followed by key contests in Ohio and Texas. Clinton is in a must win situation in Texas and Ohio, and it looks like she is not putting significant resources into Wisconsin. Obama is looking increasing confident on the stump, while Clinton is showing the strain of the long campaign.
After watching several political rallies of both candidates, and reviewing recent polling data, I am starting to think that Obama has a better chance of winning the Presidency than Clinton. He really is able to energize people. This race may be shaping up to be similar to the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Governor in 2002, where Ed Rendell won the primary even after the State Democratic party endorsed his opponent, Bob Casey.
Quite a turnaround, and I expect some significant movement in the polls to Obama in the next week or so, which may make it difficult for Clinton to catch up in the delegate race. The key in the Democratic contest is what the margin will be, which is why I have switched the Democratic Nomination map to show delegate margins (including projections of delegate margins). The latest polls show Obama slightly ahead in Wisconsin, with Clinton comfortably ahead in Ohio, although I don't expect that to hold. It appears that once people get to know Obama, they through their support to him.
Check back to this site often for improvements to the site...
After watching several political rallies of both candidates, and reviewing recent polling data, I am starting to think that Obama has a better chance of winning the Presidency than Clinton. He really is able to energize people. This race may be shaping up to be similar to the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Governor in 2002, where Ed Rendell won the primary even after the State Democratic party endorsed his opponent, Bob Casey.
Quite a turnaround, and I expect some significant movement in the polls to Obama in the next week or so, which may make it difficult for Clinton to catch up in the delegate race. The key in the Democratic contest is what the margin will be, which is why I have switched the Democratic Nomination map to show delegate margins (including projections of delegate margins). The latest polls show Obama slightly ahead in Wisconsin, with Clinton comfortably ahead in Ohio, although I don't expect that to hold. It appears that once people get to know Obama, they through their support to him.
Check back to this site often for improvements to the site...
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Democratic Nomination for President
Given the amount of attention being paid to the possibility of a brokered Democratic Convention, I thought it would be a good idea to review the delegate rules for the convention. So here goes.
Monday 25 August - Thursday 28 August 2008: 45th Democratic National Convention, Denver, Colorado
The 45th DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION will have a total of 4,049 delegate votes, with 2,025 (a majority) necessary in order for a Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate to be nominated. The rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention call for the following formula to be used in determining the allocation of delegate votes to each state and jurisdiction sending a delegation to the Convention:
- Each state plus the District of Columbia is to be assigned a number of Base delegate votes based on the state's (or D.C.'s) popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the three Presidential Elections just previous to the Convention (in this case: 1996, 2000 and 2004), and the state's number of electoral votes.
- Of these Base delegate votes, 75% are assigned to be district delegate votes and the remaining 25% are to be at-large delegate votes.
- In addition to these Base delegate votes, the state (and D.C.) are awarded a number of Pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" [PLEOs], equal to 15% of the number of Base delegate votes. There are also delegate votes from U.S. dependencies which do not cast Electoral Votes for President in a General Election.
These delegate votes described so far (making up a number equal to 115% of the total Base delegate votes are pledged, prior to the first meeting of the Convention, to the support of a presidential contender who earns the support of such delegate votes by virtue of his performance as measured by the votes cast by Democratic voters in primaries and caucuses and/or by Democratic delegates to state and/or sub-state conventions held in each state prior to the Convention.
The states (and D.C.) are also assigned a number of "Unpledged" delegates. "Unpledged PLEOs" consisting of the following:
- Democratic National Committee members.
- Democratic Members of Congress (U.S. Senators and Representatives, except those who are to be Pledged PLEOs).
- Democratic Governors, except those who are already members of the Democratic National Committee and, therefore, are delegates re: a.) above.
- Distinguished Party Leaders (current and former U.S. Presidents and Vice-Presidents, former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate and U.S, House- including former Democratic Speakers of the House and former chairmen of the Democratic National Committee.
The breakdown of the delegate votes is 2,838 Base delegate votes (2,111 district delegate votes and 727 at-large delegate votes) 415 Pledged PLEOs (meaning a total of 3,253 delegate votes to be determined by either a primary or a caucus/convention system in each state or other jurisdiction) 796 Unpledged delegate votes (720 Unpledged PLEOs and 76 Unpledged "add-on"s) for a total of 4,049 delegate votes.
Source: www.TheGreenPapers.com
Democratic Primary Schedule and Delegate Count
The Democratic Nomination for President is still up in the air after Super Tuesday. Here is the current delegate count for the Democratic Nomination for President, including the schedule for the upcoming primaries.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Dem Race Tightening Up for Super Tuesday
The race for the Democratic Nomination for President tightened up over the weekend, with Obama taking a small lead in several polls (but not all) in California. For now, I am predicting Clinton will win California by a small margin, however a win for Clinton in California (and maybe other states) hinges on turnout from Latino vote, which a
ppear to support her.
Clinton holds leads, and will likely win New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennesee. Obama will likely win in Illinois, Georgia, Missouri. California, Alabama, Connecticut could go either way. Bottom line is Clinton and Obama will split the delegates and the race will go on, however the edge still will be with Clinton in the Super Delegates. Obama needs to win California to have a shot at the nomination.
In the Republican race, McCain has an ever expanding lead and will likely win most of the states - and most states have some form of "winner take all" delegate system.
ppear to support her.Clinton holds leads, and will likely win New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennesee. Obama will likely win in Illinois, Georgia, Missouri. California, Alabama, Connecticut could go either way. Bottom line is Clinton and Obama will split the delegates and the race will go on, however the edge still will be with Clinton in the Super Delegates. Obama needs to win California to have a shot at the nomination.
In the Republican race, McCain has an ever expanding lead and will likely win most of the states - and most states have some form of "winner take all" delegate system.
Friday, February 1, 2008
2004 Presidential Election Results
George W. Bush won the 2004 Presidential Election as follows:
Bush had 286 electoral votes and Kerry had 249 electoral votes.
Bush had 286 electoral votes and Kerry had 249 electoral votes.
Florida
Florida has recently been trending Republican, and the initial projection is that Florida, while still a "swing" state, will lean Republican in the 2008 Presidential Election.
Florida has no Senate or Governor races in 2008.
Click Here for additional polling data
Florida has no Senate or Governor races in 2008.
Click Here for additional polling data
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
So it is Clinton and McCain in Florida
Now that Clinton and McCain won in Florida, we are all looking ahead to Super Tuesday a week from now. The big question is which party will have a presidential candidate first? The next week will be a time of reflection among Democratic voters as to which candidate will hold up the best in the general election against McCain?
It will likely be decided by Latino voters, which will play a significant role in several key battleground states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada.
McCain and Romney in tight race in Florida
McCain has at most a 1 percentage point lead in Florida according to my analysis. So I am rating this election a tossup with a slight edge to McCain.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Obama Wins Decisively in South Carolina
Obama has won a decisive victory in South Carolina, which was expected. The final tally was 55% Obama, 27% Clinton, and 18% Edwards. The average polls in South Carolina over the last week were surprisingly consistent in their support for Clinton at 26%, and Edwards at 18%. This suggests that most of the undecided vote ended up supporting Obama. The media described Obama's win as "overwhelming", "crushing", "lopsided" and "commanding", however given what happened in New Hampshire, nobody was writing Hillary's obituary yet.
While Obama has a small lead in delegates from primaries and caucuses (63 to 48), Clinton still has a similar lead when super delegates are included (235 to 155). However, the current polls show significant leads by Clinton in most Super Tuesday states with the exception of Georgia and Colorado, where Obama has slim leads.
So Clinton would really have to have a meltdown to lose the nomination at this point.
While Obama has a small lead in delegates from primaries and caucuses (63 to 48), Clinton still has a similar lead when super delegates are included (235 to 155). However, the current polls show significant leads by Clinton in most Super Tuesday states with the exception of Georgia and Colorado, where Obama has slim leads.
So Clinton would really have to have a meltdown to lose the nomination at this point.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
California
California has 53 electoral votes, by far the largest state in the nation. California has recently been trending Democratic, due in large part to the increase in Latino population.California has no Senate or Governor races in 2008.
Click Here for additional polling data
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Obama with slim lead in Nevada... McCain leading in most South Carolina polls, but will the Evangelicals come out to vote?
Nevada caucuses are next and both the Democratic and Republican races there are too close to call, and are leaning one way or another depending on which polls you look at. Obama's comment that Reagan changed the country in ways that Nixon and Bill Clinton did not because the country was ready for him was not what the Dems want to hear - it sounded like something that could go into a Republican add campaign, but could this appeal to "Reagan Democrats" in California?
So while Clinton appears to be succeeding in defining herself as as a President who would be an effective manager who understands the policy details, Obama appears to be very effective at telling a story, a persuasive one about change, leadership etc.
The South Carolina polls for the Republican primary are shaping up to be similar to the Michigan polls - some show McCain far ahead (over 10 points), but others show a much closer race. Some 
have said that evangelicals are under-represented in the polls, so will they come out to vote for Huckabee or will McCain pull off an upset? I think that McCain could have a similar experience to Obama's New Hampshire surprise and lose South Carolina by a close margin.
have said that evangelicals are under-represented in the polls, so will they come out to vote for Huckabee or will McCain pull off an upset? I think that McCain could have a similar experience to Obama's New Hampshire surprise and lose South Carolina by a close margin. In the mean time, Romney had an altercation with a reporter where he tried yet again parse his own statements to explain what his definition of lobbyists running his campaign was (he said that lobbyists do not run his campaign, however he has paid and unpaid lobbyists advising him or helping him run his campaign.
However, short of a blowout, I still think McCain and Clinton are the favorites, and McCain will likely win California, New Jersey (New York if Guiliani bows out?). It may not be easy, but they will likely win.
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