Barack Obama is on a roll, winning eight primaries / caucuses in a row and building a lot of momentum in preparation for the Wisconsin primary on February 19, followed by key contests in Ohio and Texas. Clinton is in a must win situation in Texas and Ohio, and it looks like she is not putting significant resources into Wisconsin. Obama is looking increasing confident on the stump, while Clinton is showing the strain of the long campaign.
After watching several political rallies of both candidates, and reviewing recent polling data, I am starting to think that Obama has a better chance of winning the Presidency than Clinton. He really is able to energize people. This race may be shaping up to be similar to the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Governor in 2002, where Ed Rendell won the primary even after the State Democratic party endorsed his opponent, Bob Casey.
Quite a turnaround, and I expect some significant movement in the polls to Obama in the next week or so, which may make it difficult for Clinton to catch up in the delegate race. The key in the Democratic contest is what the margin will be, which is why I have switched the Democratic Nomination map to show delegate margins (including projections of delegate margins). The latest polls show Obama slightly ahead in Wisconsin, with Clinton comfortably ahead in Ohio, although I don't expect that to hold. It appears that once people get to know Obama, they through their support to him.
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