The presidential race is tightening a little over the weekend as we are only two days from election day. Obama still leads in the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, however the lead is down to 5 or lower in these states. One metric to consider is whether the polls have Obama over 50% in a state. If he is at this state in the election, history says he will win that state. If you look back at the 2004 race, Kerry was not over 50% in Ohio, Florida. He currently has polls in most of the swing states showing him over 50%.
So, here is the bottom line. If on election day, Obama carries Virginia and Colorado, he will be the next president of the United States even if he does not win Florida and Ohio (which is is currently ahead in the polling anyway). Right now, his chances look better in Colorado than Virginia, so but we will likely find out the results of Virginia first on Tuesday.
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