Friday, August 1, 2008

Vote Projections for 31 July 2008

President: Several polls out today - no significant changes except that Colorado is now put back into Obama's column with the 50-47% poll by Rassmussen taken around 21 July. Montana has a new poll showing Obama and McCain tied at 47 a piece. Ohio is now narrowly back to Obama (46-44%) with a new poll out by Quinnipaic. This suggests that the previous Ohio poll showing McCain ahead by 10% was likely an anomaly. In Florida however, Obama maintains a 2 point lead in a poll by Quinnipaic, suggesting that the previous poll showing the race tightening there may be correct. McCain had held about a 6 point margin in Florida for several weeks prior. Overall, Obama is showing small gains from his Middle East and Europe trip, which was to be expected given McCain's lackluster performance during Obama's trip.

Senate: The most significant poll shows that Risch (R) is ahead of LaRocco (D) by 10 points in the Idaho Senate seat being vacated by Larry Craig. No other changes to Senate projections.

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