There are no polls for the Wyoming caucus, so I have to go with the conventional wisdom and say that Obama will win this caucus, but the margin is difficult to predict given the upheaval in the Democratic race. However a recent poll shows Obama ahead in Mississippi by 46-40%.
There has been a lot of talk in the media about Clinton winning big states, or more important "swing" states, that some states are more important than others, and caucus states are not democratic, or that she would be more likely to win in November etc. This argument is presented by the Clinton campaign because it is becoming increasingly likely that the only way for Clinton to win the nomination is with a superdelegate solution - that is to have the superdelegates override the election results in the primaries and caucuses to win the nomination.
Currently Clinton will need to win 66% of the vote in the remaining contests if Florida and Michigan are not included in the delegate totals. If the Florda and Michigan contests are redone, Clinton will need 60% of the vote going forward. I have provided this calculation in the delegate tracking sheet on this site and will update it as additional contests occur. Assuming that the superdelegates do not override the popular vote totals, we will be able to say that Obama "clinches" the nomination once Clinton needs to win more than 100% of the remaining vote.
The Democratic nomination for president proportionally allocates delegates, and is not based on a "winner take all" allocation of delegates like the Republican nomination and General Election for president.
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