Over the last days since Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, Hillary and her talking head supporters have been trying to make several argument to the superdelegates and public on why she should be nominated, despite an insurmountable lead by Obama in the pledged delegates.
One of her arguments is that Hillary is stronger in the general election because she won Pennsylvania and Ohio (she even had Lanny Davis on CNN stating that the latest poll has Obama losing to McCain in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts - check the map on this site to see the latest poll showing Obama ahead against McCain in both those states). The New York Times has an article yesterday based on an analysis of the exit poll data show that Obama would likely pick up majorities and win against McCain in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As this site demonstrates, state matchups for Obama and Clinton against McCain shows a close race for both Obama and Clinton against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania polls. While Obama is slightly behind in Ohio according to the latest poll, Obama has several states that he would likely have an easier time winning than Clinton, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia. Once the primary is over and the Democrats come together to support one candidate, Obama will likely improve his support in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don't buy MSNBCs exit polling data indicating that about 50% of Clinton supporters would not vote for Obama in November - this is a response to the heated primary, Clinton supporters should come around to support Obama eventually. Furthermore, one has to consider that independents could not vote in Pennsylvania, and the recent surge in Democratic voters should help the Democratic nominee as well.
Hillary Clinton now says she has more overall votes than Obama by counting Michigan and Florida votes, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both states were disqualified and no campaigning was conducted in these states. As we all know Obama continues to hold the lead in the popular vote and pledged delegates for all states with fair contests. The Florida and Michigan results are no better that the latest SurveyUSA opinion polls.
Clinton supports have repeated on the talk shows over and over again that since the general election uses a state winner take all system, that superdelegates should consider who wins if the rules were changed to reflect the electory system used in the general election. The idea is that Obama would not win any of the states he lost to Clinton in November. This claim does not hold water either, no comparison can be made between the primaries and the general election.
Bottom line is I believe Obama will be the stronger candidate in November against McCain. Most Americans, Democrates, Republicans and Independents alike agree with this.
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2 comments:
Well, you sure sound hopeful for a positive outcome for Obama.
Maybe it will be so - maybe he will win. He will likely win the Democrat's nomination.
Will he win against McCaine?
I have my doubts.
Zee, glad you like the site. Just really getting of the ground really. What has to happen is all superdelegates need to declare their candidate on or before June 3, and then there will be 6 months to bring the party together. My current tracking of Obama vs. McCain polls on this site shows it is very close - we are not talking about having to close a significant gap between Obama and McCain like the Pennsylvania primary.
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