Vote Projections for 29 October 2008

The Presidential race is pretty stable with Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado plus all of the "blue" states from 2004 in Obama's column. Ohio, Florida, Montana and Nevada are barely Obama (<5% margin), and North Carolina, Missouri are tossups. If all the "leaning Obama" and tossup states ended up going for McCain, Obama would still win the election with 270 electoral votes. This is the reason McCain keeps on campaining in states that he is losing by double digits like Pennsylvania and Virginia. Also goes with the McCain approach. He likes to "roll the dice" as Obama has said.

There is movement towards the Democrates in the House of Representitives projection has increased to a net gain of 15 seats for Democrates, with 4 seats rated as tossups.

Vote Projections for 27 October 2008

Only 8 days until election day and time is running out for McCain. Polls released over the weekend do not show a significant change, however several of the states have stabilized in tossup mode, such as North Dakota, Missouri, and North Carolina. So Obama has dipped a little but McCain has not gained any electoral votes. Virginia, Colorado appear to be still strong for Obama and McCain has essentially stopped competing there. McCain seems to be still competing strongly in Pennsylvania, despite double digit leads by Obama in PA polls. the McCain camp is doing some infighting and the blame game is starting. If there is not a signficant change in the polls over the next 3 days, it will not likely turn for McCain over the weekend.

Vote Projections for 23 October 2008

Lots of polls released today. Most notable is Indiana giving Obama a 10 point lead. A poll also has Obama ahead by 4 in Montana. So Obama has double digit leads in all "blue states" that Kerry won except New Hampshire (7 point lead). He also has double digit leads in the following "red states" - Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Indiana. For Ohio and Indiana, we will have to see if this lead holds. He has single digit leads in Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, and New Hampshire. The remaining states in play, Obama leads by <5 points (Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada. This is the current state of the race.

In the mean time, McCain keeps on hammering away on his mis-statement that Obama will raise taxes on "Joe the Plummer". Apparently he has said it so many times that nobody challenges it anymore. Obama is now visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Obama is for the most part campaigning only in the new former "red" swing states - Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. The interesting thing is Florida, which was recently considered too red to win by the Democrates, has now become potentially more winnable than Ohio.

Vote Projections for 18 October 2008

The Presidential election has settled down for now, with the key battleground states being Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Look for the candidates to spend most of their time there in the last few weeks before November 4. Pennwylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and New Mexico appear to be Strong Obama and out of reach of McCain. Three other states could be added to the swing states as well (West Virginia, North Dakota and Georgia), but they are not there yet. New polls, while not tipping the projection to McCain in these states show ties in North Dakota and Ohio and McCain ahead by 2 in Flordia. Too soon to know if this is a trend.

In the Senate, we are now at 7 Dem seats gained and one tie. House now stands to gain 15 Dems and for Governors, the 2 seat gain by Republicans is now back to 0 (Washington and North Carolina back in Dem column).

Presidential Debate 3

Senators Obama and McCain participated in the third and last debate of the 2008 campaign at Hoffstra University in Hempstead, NY. Although McCain may have had his strongest debate night, his performance was marked by signficant attacks on Obama, while Obama remained calm and cool. McCain often looked irritated, a little angry. The overall result was instant polls had Obama winning the debate, which may say more about who the polled folks support more than the performance of each candidate.

Several false statements by McCain were repeated during the debate including "Obama is going to raise your taxes" (not true for 95% of people), Obama "launched his campaign in William Ayers living room" (not true), ACORN "destroying the fabric of American democracy".

Obama's goal was to play the debate conservatively since he has a lead in the polls. Overall, there was no game changer in this debate. Only 16 days until Election Day!

Vote Projections for 15 October 2008

The trend to Obama continues. A couple surprising polls that I failed to mention last post was West Virginia (Obama by 8) and North Dakota (Obama by 2). Today we have Obama tied in North Carolina and Barely Obama in Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and North Dakota. If you take away the "Barley" states (1-4% lead), Obama wins with 336 EVs (270 needed to win).

In the Senate, Obama coattails may be having an effect. The current projection is that Dems will pick up 8 seats, however some of the races are very close. In addition, Saxby Chambliss (R, GA) is looking vulnerable against Martin (D). The closest races are Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Georgia.

Vote Projections for 9 October 2008

No significant changes in projections for President over the last few days. Missouri switches to Barely McCain with a new ARG poll showing McCain up by 3 points. North Carolina is still Barely McCain, however a new poll from Rassmussen has Obama ahead in North Carolina by 1 point. In Indiana, a new Rassmussen poll shows McCain widening his lead to 7 points (50%-43%), so Indiana switches to Weak McCain. We will have to see whether this is an outlier or whether McCain has a larger lead in Indiana. Colorado switches from Barely Obama to Weak Obama with a 6 point lead (51%-45%) in the latest Insider Advantage / Poll Position.

There are no major changes in the Senate, House or Governor races.

Second Presidential Debate - Nashville Tennessee

Barack Obama and John McCain debated in Nashville in a town hall format. There was minimal involvement by the audience. Despite what the pundits predicted, Obama seemed very comfortable in the setting, while McCain looked nervous, and a little uncomfortable, referring to Obama as "that one", striving to control himself from getting too irritated. McCain was quite aggressive, but the debate was not the game changer that McCain needed to change the race. Overall, Obama won the debate, as will be shown in the instant polls and other polls that will come out over the next days. The third and final debate was October 15 at Hoffstra University, Hempstead, NY that focuses on domestic policy.

Vote Projections for Tuesday, October 7 2008

Obama continues to lead in most swing states on the eve of the second Presidential debate today. His lead is surprisingly strong in Virginia, where he has a 10 point lead in the latest poll. His leads in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada are small, 1-5 points, however these states were leaning McCain less than a month ago. North Carolina flips to McCain, but only by 2 points (the previous poll had them tied).

Look for McCain to take risks with the debate to try to shake up the race since he is behind. McCain may even go on the attack even though the pundits think that you can't do that in the town hall format in Nashville Tennessee. Check back later for my assessment of who won the debate.

Vice Presidential Debate - Biden vs. Palin

Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin debated on the campus of Washington University, St. Louis Missouri tonight. Palin was under alot of pressure to perform well due to her performance with interviews with Katie Couric and Charles Gibson over the last month. Palin held her own and probably alleviated concerns by the Republican base. Palin was folksy, but on the facts and issues, the debate goes to Biden. And according to a CNN poll, Biden won the debate 51%-36% among people who watched the debate. Overall, the debate probably did not do much for McCain but did resuscitate her image for Conservatives. However for Independents, Democrats, her image may already be too far gone.

Presidental state polls now show Obama ahead in all swing states (defined as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada. He also has a slim lead in North Carolina.

Vote Projections for 1 October 2008

There were numerous State polls released today for President. Most polls show a significant trend towards Obama that is shifting all "swing" States into his column, and even shows Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio. Missouri is now rated as a tossup now. The most dramatic polls are from Quinnipaic University, which has Obama up in Pennsylvania by 15 points (54%-39%), and Obama up in Florida by 8 points (51%-43%). While these polls may be outliers, they confirm the trend and it is not a good one for McCain. Nationally, Obama is ahead by about 5 points.

The trend to Obama appears to be due to several areas. First, the economic crisis benefits Obama, which contributed to Obama's poll surge late last week. Second, McCain was erratic in his response to the economic crisis, suspending his campaign, then not really contributing much to the process, saying he would not debate, then saying he would debate. Third and most importantly, Obama won the debate according to the American people because he looked Presidential, showed he would stand up to McCain on foreign policy and that he had a good understanding of foreign policy. This was a surprise to some in the press who thought McCain won (certainly some in press said Obama won). Lastly, the Sarah Palin factor - she has lost significant credibility due to her interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric, particularly the Couric interview as her responses to questions were used almost verbatim by Tina Faye in SNL, which showed her responding in an almost incoherent way. All this has put Obama ahead in most of the swing states.

Tomorrow is the Vice Presidential debate which will be make or break for Palin.