Obama with slim lead in Nevada... McCain leading in most South Carolina polls, but will the Evangelicals come out to vote?

Nevada caucuses are next and both the Democratic and Republican races there are too close to call, and are leaning one way or another depending on which polls you look at. Obama's comment that Reagan changed the country in ways that Nixon and Bill Clinton did not because the country was ready for him was not what the Dems want to hear - it sounded like something that could go into a Republican add campaign, but could this appeal to "Reagan Democrats" in California?

So while Clinton appears to be succeeding in defining herself as as a President who would be an effective manager who understands the policy details, Obama appears to be very effective at telling a story, a persuasive one about change, leadership etc.

The South Carolina polls for the Republican primary are shaping up to be similar to the Michigan polls - some show McCain far ahead (over 10 points), but others show a much closer race. Some have said that evangelicals are under-represented in the polls, so will they come out to vote for Huckabee or will McCain pull off an upset? I think that McCain could have a similar experience to Obama's New Hampshire surprise and lose South Carolina by a close margin.

In the mean time, Romney had an altercation with a reporter where he tried yet again parse his own statements to explain what his definition of lobbyists running his campaign was (he said that lobbyists do not run his campaign, however he has paid and unpaid lobbyists advising him or helping him run his campaign.

However, short of a blowout, I still think McCain and Clinton are the favorites, and McCain will likely win California, New Jersey (New York if Guiliani bows out?). It may not be easy, but they will likely win.