The Trend to Obama Continues

Over the last month a pattern has emerged - as the primary for a particular state nears, Obama continues to narrow Clinton's lead in key states, eventually to overtake her by the time the primary rolls around. This pattern is holding true for Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, the last key states that Clinton would need to sweep if she has any chance to capture the Democratic Nomination.

The latest polls in Texas give a slight edge to Obama (Clinton leads in latest poll 47% to 43%, however the average over the last week has Obama ahead). In Ohio, Clinton has the lead 50% to 44%. In Pennsylvania, a new poll from Rassmussen has Clinton ahead by only 4%, or 46% to 42%.

For Obama vs. McCain, I am projecting McCain 266 electoral votes and Obama 264 electoral votes, with Pennsylvania narrowly in the McCain column, and Ohio, Iowa and Colorado in the Obama column. New Mexico rated as a tossup. All other states are in the same column as in 2004.

Texas in Dead Heat for DEM Nomination; Ohio Polls Show DEM Lead for President

The latest polls show Texas is a tossup for the Democratic Nomination for President and Clinton has a small lead in Ohio. Texas delegate rules call for districts that vote heavily Democratic in the general election (such as Houston, Dallas) get a highter proportion of delegates than areas that vote Republican. As a result, Obama will likely get more delegates than Clinton even if he does not win the popular vote in Ohio. As a result of this and the polls that show Obama may also win the popular vote in Texas, I am projecting that Obama will win the Democratic nomination at this time. Hence you will now see the Obama vs. McCain map come up first on this site.

For the first time, polls show a lead for Obama vs. McCain in Ohio, a critical swing state. Interestly, the SurveyUSA polls show a larger lead for Clinton vs. McCain (52%-42%)than for Obama vs. McCain (47%-44%), but that is consistent with the current polls in the Democratic Primary at this time. Accordingly, I am projecting Ohio will go Democratic.

The Democratic debate was more civil than I expected-- I think Clinton recognized that the downside to being too agressive was worse than the upside.

It will be interesting to see what the impact of the New York Times article on McCain's relationship with lobbyists has on polls. We will not know for about a week.

Obama Wins Big in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Barack Obama won an impressive victory in Wisconsin, by a margin of 17 percentage points, and almost 50 points in his childhood state of Hawaii on Tuesday. These wins, which now are 10 contests in a row for Obama make it unlikely that Clinton will be able to recover to gain the Democratic Nomination.

Meanwhile, the latest polls show the Ohio race tightening, as expected. The polls also continue to show Obama with wider margins than Clinton against McCain. The media is asking the question "What has Clinton done wrong?. I would argue Clinton's troubles are more about what Obama is doing than what Clinton is doing.

Over the next days, I plan to summarize the positions of Clinton and Obama on this page, in respose to questions by the media and some of the candidates'

Dem Race in Texas is Tightening

Senator Barrack Obama is in a competitive race in Texas. A new poll gives Hillary Clinton only a 2-point lead in Texas, which is a significant changes from just a week ago. On the eve of the Wisconsin primary, that race may be getting closer as well, depending on which polls you look at.

It should be another interesting night tomorrow in Wisconsin, but I am predicting Obama will win Wisconsin by 6 percentage points. Wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii tomorrow should position Obama to be the nominee at the convention if the Democratic "superdelegates" do the right thing and vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primaries in June. So in June, remaining superdelegates who have not endorsed should declare for the winner of the popular vote at that time and not wait for the convention in the end of August.

This all will be a moot issue if Obama wins Texas or Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Obama wins 8th in a Row

Barack Obama is on a roll, winning eight primaries / caucuses in a row and building a lot of momentum in preparation for the Wisconsin primary on February 19, followed by key contests in Ohio and Texas. Clinton is in a must win situation in Texas and Ohio, and it looks like she is not putting significant resources into Wisconsin. Obama is looking increasing confident on the stump, while Clinton is showing the strain of the long campaign.

After watching several political rallies of both candidates, and reviewing recent polling data, I am starting to think that Obama has a better chance of winning the Presidency than Clinton. He really is able to energize people. This race may be shaping up to be similar to the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Governor in 2002, where Ed Rendell won the primary even after the State Democratic party endorsed his opponent, Bob Casey.

Quite a turnaround, and I expect some significant movement in the polls to Obama in the next week or so, which may make it difficult for Clinton to catch up in the delegate race. The key in the Democratic contest is what the margin will be, which is why I have switched the Democratic Nomination map to show delegate margins (including projections of delegate margins). The latest polls show Obama slightly ahead in Wisconsin, with Clinton comfortably ahead in Ohio, although I don't expect that to hold. It appears that once people get to know Obama, they through their support to him.

Check back to this site often for improvements to the site...

Democratic Nomination for President

Given the amount of attention being paid to the possibility of a brokered Democratic Convention, I thought it would be a good idea to review the delegate rules for the convention. So here goes.

Monday 25 August - Thursday 28 August 2008: 45th Democratic National Convention, Denver, Colorado

The 45th DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION will have a total of 4,049 delegate votes, with 2,025 (a majority) necessary in order for a Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate to be nominated. The rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention call for the following formula to be used in determining the allocation of delegate votes to each state and jurisdiction sending a delegation to the Convention:

1. Each state plus the District of Columbia is to be assigned a number of Base delegate votes based on the state's (or D.C.'s) popular vote for the Democratic candidate for President in the three Presidential Elections just previous to the Convention (in this case: 1996, 2000 and 2004), and the state's number of electoral votes.
2. Of these Base delegate votes, 75% are assigned to be district delegate votes and the remaining 25% are to be at-large delegate votes.
3. In addition to these Base delegate votes, the state (and D.C.) are awarded a number of Pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" [PLEOs], equal to 15% of the number of Base delegate votes. There are also delegate votes from U.S. dependencies which do not cast Electoral Votes for President in a General Election.

These delegate votes described so far (making up a number equal to 115% of the total Base delegate votes are pledged, prior to the first meeting of the Convention, to the support of a presidential contender who earns the support of such delegate votes by virtue of his performance as measured by the votes cast by Democratic voters in primaries and caucuses and/or by Democratic delegates to state and/or sub-state conventions held in each state prior to the Convention.

The states (and D.C.) are also assigned a number of "Unpledged" delegates. "Unpledged PLEOs" consisting of the following:

1. Democratic National Committee members.
2. Democratic Members of Congress (U.S. Senators and Representatives, except those who are to be Pledged PLEOs).
3. Democratic Governors, except those who are already members of the Democratic National Committee and, therefore, are delegates re: a.) above.
4. Distinguished Party Leaders (current and former U.S. Presidents and Vice-Presidents, former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate and U.S, House- including former Democratic Speakers of the House and former chairmen of the Democratic National Committee.

The breakdown of the delegate votes is 2,838 Base delegate votes (2,111 district delegate votes and 727 at-large delegate votes) 415 Pledged PLEOs (meaning a total of 3,253 delegate votes to be determined by either a primary or a caucus/convention system in each state or other jurisdiction) 796 Unpledged delegate votes (720 Unpledged PLEOs and 76 Unpledged "add-on"s) for a total of 4,049 delegate votes.

Source: www.TheGreenPapers.com

Democratic Primary Schedule and Delegate Count

The Democratic Nomination for President is still up in the air after Super Tuesday. Here is the current delegate count for the Democratic Nomination for President, including the schedule for the upcoming primaries.

Dem Race Tightening Up for Super Tuesday

The race for the Democratic Nomination for President tightened up over the weekend, with Obama taking a small lead in several polls (but not all) in California. For now, I am predicting Clinton will win California by a small margin, however a win for Clinton in California (and maybe other states) hinges on turnout from Latino vote, which appear to support her.

Clinton holds leads, and will likely win New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Arizona, Tennesee. Obama will likely win in Illinois, Georgia, Missouri. California, Alabama, Connecticut could go either way. Bottom line is Clinton and Obama will split the delegates and the race will go on, however the edge still will be with Clinton in the Super Delegates. Obama needs to win California to have a shot at the nomination.

In the Republican race, McCain has an ever expanding lead and will likely win most of the states - and most states have some form of "winner take all" delegate system.

2004 Presidential Election Results

George W. Bush won the 2004 Presidential Election as follows:



Bush had 286 electoral votes and Kerry had 249 electoral votes.

Florida

Florida has recently been trending Republican, and the initial projection is that Florida, while still a "swing" state, will lean Republican in the 2008 Presidential Election.

Florida has no Senate or Governor races in 2008.


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Colorado

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Texas

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Ohio

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Wisconsin

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