Who is stronger in November - Clinton or Obama?

Over the last days since Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, Hillary and her talking head supporters have been trying to make several argument to the superdelegates and public on why she should be nominated, despite an insurmountable lead by Obama in the pledged delegates.

One of her arguments is that Hillary is stronger in the general election because she won Pennsylvania and Ohio (she even had Lanny Davis on CNN stating that the latest poll has Obama losing to McCain in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts - check the map on this site to see the latest poll showing Obama ahead against McCain in both those states). The New York Times has an article yesterday based on an analysis of the exit poll data show that Obama would likely pick up majorities and win against McCain in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As this site demonstrates, state matchups for Obama and Clinton against McCain shows a close race for both Obama and Clinton against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania polls. While Obama is slightly behind in Ohio according to the latest poll, Obama has several states that he would likely have an easier time winning than Clinton, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia. Once the primary is over and the Democrats come together to support one candidate, Obama will likely improve his support in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don't buy MSNBCs exit polling data indicating that about 50% of Clinton supporters would not vote for Obama in November - this is a response to the heated primary, Clinton supporters should come around to support Obama eventually. Furthermore, one has to consider that independents could not vote in Pennsylvania, and the recent surge in Democratic voters should help the Democratic nominee as well.

Hillary Clinton now says she has more overall votes than Obama by counting Michigan and Florida votes, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both states were disqualified and no campaigning was conducted in these states. As we all know Obama continues to hold the lead in the popular vote and pledged delegates for all states with fair contests. The Florida and Michigan results are no better that the latest SurveyUSA opinion polls.

Clinton supports have repeated on the talk shows over and over again that since the general election uses a state winner take all system, that superdelegates should consider who wins if the rules were changed to reflect the electory system used in the general election. The idea is that Obama would not win any of the states he lost to Clinton in November. This claim does not hold water either, no comparison can be made between the primaries and the general election.

Bottom line is I believe Obama will be the stronger candidate in November against McCain. Most Americans, Democrates, Republicans and Independents alike agree with this.

Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania, margin in single digits

Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania, for a net gain of about 15 delegates. The margin of victory was a little higher than the latest polls, 55-45%. This sets up the next primarys, on May 5 in North Carolina, where Obama is favored by about 15%, and Indiana where he is favored by 5%.

Mr. Obama will likely make up all of the delegates he lost in Pennsylvania and then some if he wins North Carolina and/or Indiana. This scenario virtually guarantees that Obama will win the pledged delegate count - with only 445 pledged delegates left she has to win 67% of the remaining pledged delegates to surpass Obama in this category.

It is also increasingly unlikely that he will not win the popular vote, even if Florida results are factored in, unless she wins Indiana and keeps North Carolina very close, which is not likely to be case. As has been the case since March, the odds of Clinton winning the nomination remain very low.

Obama takes train ride from Philadelphia to Harrisburg

Barack Obama and Senator Bob Casey took a train ride from Philadelphia to Harrisburg, with a stop in Paoli, PA where he spoke at the train station. The polls in Pennsylvania have narrowed significantly, with Clinton leading Obama by 3-4 points.

Obama is now leading in Indiana by 5 points and North Carolina by 15 points. Obama is also leading against Clinton and McCain in national polls as well.

Clinton has been doing more damage to herself by going on the attack and getting press for her negative attacks, which mutes any damage that the original controversy has had. As a result, after about 4 days of attacks, Obama generally gains ground on Clinton.

Howard Dean, the DNC Chairman said that he needs Superdelegates to start making their choice for president now and he sees no reason why all Superdelegates could not make their choice by June 3 when the last primary is held. This approach would allow a nominee to be determined by some time in May, if the Superdelegates cooporated.

Check back soon for a state by state summary of competetive races and projections.

Projections are made using the latest polls, using an average of the latest polls over the last 10 days (using the approximate mid point of the polling period as the date of the poll). If no polls exist within the last 10 days, then the latest poll is used to project the race. If there are no polls at all, then the actual results from the last election cycle are used to project the race.