Presidential Debate 1 - Oxford Mississippi

Senators Obama and McCain participated in the first Presidential debate held in Oxford Mississippi. Senator Obama held his own and more in foreign policy and took control of the debate for the most part and passed the Commander in Chief test. McCain was more emotional but looked uncomfortable on the stage and called Obama naive and said he lacked the knowledge and experience to be president. Is he shifting back to campaigning on "experience" rather than change? What was surprising however, was the fact that McCain attended the debate at all. McCain changed his position earlier today and decided to attend the debate even though an agreement on the banking deal was not imminent. McCain There appears to be a pattern of unpredictability here with the McCain campaign, and this effort appears to have backfired according to several conservative commentators.

Now to the latest polls, a new Rassmussen poll in Virginia has Obama leading 50-45%, accordingly Virginia now moves from tossup to weak Obama.

In the Senate, new polls now show Merkley (D) ahead of Smith (R) in the Oregon Senate race, increasing the Senate gains to 6 seats.

Vote Projections for 25 September 2008

McCain suspends campaign? Yes, John McCain said he was suspending his campaign to work on the $700 billion financial industry bailout legislation and he said he may not show up for the debate on Friday if Congress does not pass a bill. Will Obama have to debate by himself in Mississippi tomorrow?

The polls are now moving Obama's way, which may have been why we saw McCain's "Hail Mary" pass to suspend his campaign and pospone the debate. A couple of changes to the presidential projections today. North Carolina is now rated a tossup, as a new poll has Obama ahead bo 2 points coupled with a poll earlier in the week that had McCain ahead by 3 points. Colorado has a new poll showing Obama ahead by 9 points. Ohio is very close, either tied or McCain by 1, but Ohio stays at Weak McCain for now.

In the Senate projections, one change is Begich (D) is now leading Ted Stephens (R) for Senate in Alaska by 50-44% according to the most recent poll. Ted Stephens' trial for corruption started today in Federal court.

Vote Projections Updated 22 September 2008

Polls now show Obama pulling away from McCain in National polls, with most polls showing Obama ahead by 5 points. In the state polls, Virginia is trending to Obama and Colorado has a poll with Obama ahead by 10 points. We will have to see if this holds. If this trend continues, Obama will be in a good position and would not have to pick up Ohio or Florida to win the nomination. Pennsylvania remains close but still shows Obama ahead by about 3 points. Ohio and Florida are still showing McCain ahead by about 5 points.

In the Senate Hagan (D) is now ahead of Dole (R) for the North Carolina Senate seat, resulting in Democrats picking up a projected 6 seats.

Vote Projections 20 September 2008

Barack Obama has regained the electoral vote projection based on polls released yesterday showing Obama has leads in Pennsylvania and Iowa (previously tossups). In Ohio, a new poll shows Obama ahead by 2 points, but based on the last week of polling, the projection is now a tossup. Overall this was a good week for Obama for several reasons. First was the economic news which favors Obama. Second, the "Palin Factor" was wearing off, and third, the negative attacks from McCain and the perception that he was being dishonest or lying may have also affected McCain's slide.

No significant changes to the Senate, House or Governor projections.

Vote Projections for 11 September 2008

The candidates took a break today from campaigning to meet together at Ground Zero. But that did not stop the polls from coming in. McCain is now projected to pick up Ohio, Florida, which means the electoral map is now the same as the 2004 election except for Iowa and Colorado which are projected for Obama. Clearly hype from Sarah Palin has given McCain gains in the polls - it remains to be seen how long this effect lasts. Historically with this election, McCain has gained until he broke even with Obama, and then typically McCain loses ground. Could this be a cycle here?

There is a change in the Governor projections with Repoblican candidates pulling ahead for North Carolina and Washington.

RNC Convention - Day 1

Not much to report on at the Republican National Convention as Hurricane Gustav forced Republicans to cancel most activities of their first day of their convention. This is because they were concerned of the public relations nightmare if Gustav caused major damage, given the performance of the current administration during Katrina.

The major story of the day was Vice President candidate Sarah Palin's 17 year old teanage daughter is 5 months pregnant. This seams to have no effect on the enthusiasm by the religious right wing of the Republican Party, who absolutely adore her, despite her lack of experience. There is some concern that Palin may not have been properly vetted by McCain, raising questions about his first major decision of his campaign. (Palin is currently under investigation for firing an Alaska public safety officer for refusing to fire a trooper who was her former brother-in-law (the trooper was divorcing her sister).

The latest tracking polls released today show Obama 6-9 points ahead of McCain in National polls, with Obama over 50% for the first time. Obama is also now ahead in Ohio and Florida by one point, for a lead of 313 electoral votes for Obama and 219 electoral-votes for McCain.