Obama Maintains Lead in Texas, Clinton in Ohio, Delegate Projections Favor Obama However

Obama has a slim lead of about 2 points in Texas with Clinton holding a weak lead in Ohio of about 5 points. As a result I am projecting that Obama will win the Texas primary by a 4 point margin tomorrow, and Clinton will win the Ohio primary by a 4 point margin.

In order to estimate the number of delegates gained, we must understand the Texas system for selecting delegates to the Democratic Nomination. The Texas system includes a primary which voters will choose 126 delegates allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4. A caucus is then held for voters who voted in the primary after the polls close to chose 42 delegates. Texas also has 25 pledged "party delegates" allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention. Texas also has 35 unpledged "super delegates" of party and elected officials.

The number of delegates gained in each Texas senatorial district for the primary is determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential campaign and Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006. As a result, areas that are more likely to vote for Obama such as Dallas, Houston, Austin get more delegates than areas that have more Clinton support (Republican areas), which may result in Obama picking up significantly more delegates than his vote margin would suggest. This makes projecting the delegates gained very difficult.

So here goes with the delegate projections:

Texas:
Primary - Obama 73-53
Caucus - Obama 37-30*
Total Texas - Obama 110-83; Obama +27
* Caucus delegates are projected, however actual delegates for each candidate are selected at State Convention.

Ohio: Clinton 73, Obama 68; Clinton +5

Vermont: Obama 9, Clinton 6; Obama +3

Rhode Island: Clinton 12, Obama 9; Clinton +3

Total Delegate Margin March 4 Primaries/Caucuses: Obama 196, Clinton 174; Obama +22

I will update this estimate if new information or polls come in.