The latest polls show Texas is a tossup for the Democratic Nomination for President and Clinton has a small lead in Ohio. Texas delegate rules call for districts that vote heavily Democratic in the general election (such as Houston, Dallas) get a highter proportion of delegates than areas that vote Republican. As a result, Obama will likely get more delegates than Clinton even if he does not win the popular vote in Ohio. As a result of this and the polls that show Obama may also win the popular vote in Texas, I am projecting that Obama will win the Democratic nomination at this time. Hence you will now see the Obama vs. McCain map come up first on this site.
For the first time, polls show a lead for Obama vs. McCain in Ohio, a critical swing state. Interestly, the SurveyUSA polls show a larger lead for Clinton vs. McCain (52%-42%)than for Obama vs. McCain (47%-44%), but that is consistent with the current polls in the Democratic Primary at this time. Accordingly, I am projecting Ohio will go Democratic.
The Democratic debate was more civil than I expected-- I think Clinton recognized that the downside to being too agressive was worse than the upside.
It will be interesting to see what the impact of the New York Times article on McCain's relationship with lobbyists has on polls. We will not know for about a week.
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