Two polls from Rasmussen came out today showing Ohio and Florida have flipped sides in the Presidential Race. In Ohio, McCain is ahead 52-42 and in Florida, Obama is now ahead by 2 points (within the margin of error). Previously Obama was ahead in Ohio by about 2 points, and McCain was ahead in Florda by about 6. The Ohio poll is a little surprising, however last week's polls do show a little improvement in McCain's poll numbers. Obama's numbers will likely improve next week due to Obama's overseas trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and Europe. Obama is ahead in projected electoral votes by 328 to 208.

No change in Senate projections.

No significant changes in presidential polls today except the Virginia race for president has a poll from Rassmussen showing McCain ahead 48-47%. Last poll in June had Obama ahead 49-47%, so this race is very tight. Obama leads McCain by 320 EVs to 215 EVs.

Senate projection has not changed with DEMs picking up 4 seats with the Oregon race still rated as a tossup. Senate races in Maine, Virginia show Susan Collins and Mark Warner with comfortable leads. A poll by Strategic Vision (Republican affiliated pollster) shows Senator Frank Loutenberg with a comfortable lead in New Jersey, however partison polls are not used in any projections to assure that there is no bias in the polls.

Poll Shows Obama Ahead in Nevada

For the first time since March, Obama is polling ahead in Nevada according to a Rassmusson poll released today showing Obama with 47% and McCain with 45%. In other polls, Obama leads McCain in Washington State by a 55 to 39%. McCain continues to hold a lead in Arkansas 52-39% according to the latest Rassmussen poll.

In the Senate, Elizabeth Dole maintains a comfortable lead over her opponent in North Carolina of 54-43%. Senate is projected as 54 DEM, 54 REP, 1 IND, 1 Tossup.

California vs. Kansas

Two interesting polls came out today that show that the most solid blue and red states have really significant poll margins for the presidential race. A new poll by the Field Poll has Obama up in California by a 24 point margin (54-30%), while Rasmussen has McCain up in Kansas by a 23 point margin (58-35%). While the California margin is about what it was a month ago, the Kansas margin has increased from a 13 point margin just a week ago. So is this going to be another election where some parts of the country love Obama (i.e. the coasts and midwest) and others can't connect at all with him? What this points out is that California will definately be off-limits to McCain, and Kansas - well for all you folks who have read the book "What's the Matter with Kansas" know why Obama is not doing well there. Obama may change the rules about red states and blue states but that change will not likely extend to places like Kansas.

New polls came out for the Senate races in North Carolina, Kansas and Oregon, all Republican incumbents. Dole and Roberts are comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Kansas, and in Oregon and Gorden Smith (R) and Merkely (D) are dead heat at 46% each. So I have one Tossup in my projections with Democrats gaining 4 seats, and would likely pick up 5 seats if Gordan Smith loses Oregon's Senate seat.

Obama Maintains Polls Lead in Swing States

Barack Obama has continued to maintain consistent but small leads in the polls for all of the traditional "swing states" from the last two presidential elections except Florida, plus Virginia and Colorado for well over 6 weeks now. He is also maintaining about a 5-point lead in the national polls. Over the last week, Obama has also added states such as Montana. Missouri is currently projected as a tossup, with two conflicting polls.

My current prediction for Democratic Veep is 1) Tim Kaine (Gov. VA); 2) Bill Richardson; 3) Hillary Clinton (Sen. NY) ranked in order of most likely to least likely. For the Republicans prediction is 1) Mitt Romney; 2) Tim Pawlenty (Gov. MN); Charlie Crist.

The House projections are now up and running, with Democrats projected to pick up 5 seats. Senate projection steady with Democrats picking up 4 seats.