As we have learned over this long primary campaign, interpretation of trends over the last day or so are critical when projecting results in the Democratic Primary. This clearly was the case in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania where Clinton gained support over the last day or so. Current polls indicate a very slight shift towards Obama in Indiana and towards Clinton in North Carolina. My projection is Obama +8 in North Carolina and Clinton +6 in Indiana.
A split tomorrow will be considered a win for Obama, even though it means Hillary will continue. This is because Obama is closing in on the magic number of 2024 delegates needed to win (he currently needs 268. There still is a constant trickle of Superdelegates endorsing Obama, even with several endorsing Clinton (5-2 in favor of Obama over the weekend). Assuming Obama picks up 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he would only need 75 of the remaining 268 uncommitted Superdelegates to win.
Once tomorrow is over the Superdelegates have enough information to select a candidate - will they do so or wait to the last minute?
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