Two interesting polls came out today that show that the most solid blue and red states have really significant poll margins for the presidential race. A new poll by the Field Poll has Obama up in California by a 24 point margin (54-30%), while Rasmussen has McCain up in Kansas by a 23 point margin (58-35%). While the California margin is about what it was a month ago, the Kansas margin has increased from a 13 point margin just a week ago. So is this going to be another election where some parts of the country love Obama (i.e. the coasts and midwest) and others can't connect at all with him? What this points out is that California will definately be off-limits to McCain, and Kansas - well for all you folks who have read the book "What's the Matter with Kansas" know why Obama is not doing well there. Obama may change the rules about red states and blue states but that change will not likely extend to places like Kansas.
New polls came out for the Senate races in North Carolina, Kansas and Oregon, all Republican incumbents. Dole and Roberts are comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Kansas, and in Oregon and Gorden Smith (R) and Merkely (D) are dead heat at 46% each. So I have one Tossup in my projections with Democrats gaining 4 seats, and would likely pick up 5 seats if Gordan Smith loses Oregon's Senate seat.
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