The issue with Obama's pastor, which did some damage to the polls last week seems to have run its course, and Hillary Clinton's negatives in polls have gone up significanlty while Obama's negatives have gone up only slightly.
Obama is currently up accourding to the latest poll in North Carolina by 21 points, up from one point last week. Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania has gone from 16 points to 10 points, narrowing a bit.
Hillary Clinton now needs 64% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to pull even on pledged delegates, now that Florida and Michigan re-votes are off the table.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Obama takes additional Iowa delegates at Iowa State Convention
Barrack Obama received additional delegates at the Iowa Democratic state convention, which was held on Saturday. The delegates were originally pledged delegates for other candidates that dropped out of the race. Obama netted 9 delegates in the race for pledged delegates with Clinton. The current pledged delegate count is now Obama 1410 and Clinton 1240.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Obama wins Mississippi, campaigns move on to Pennsylvania
Obama won Mississippi, by 61% to 38%, picking up 19 delegates to Clinton's 14. Exit polling showed Clinton winning in Republican areas of the state, likely due to significant Republican crossover voters. Which means that Obama's margin could have been higher if Rush Limbaugh had not called on Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary.
New polls in Pennsylvania show Clinton maintaining a double digit lead. Obama has his work cut out in Pennsylvania if he wants to make it close. There is a significant amount of time, however as Pennsylvania's primary (the next primary) is on 26 April, so there is some time.
In other political news, Geraldine Ferraro resigned her position in the Clinton campaign, but not after stating that her statement “if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position” was a "statement of fact". Apparently some version of this argument was repeated over the last few weeks in various media outlets. Most white voters support Obama not because he is black, but because they believe he is a leader, who can bring people together to get things done.
Is this similar to language used by Bill Clinton after New Hampshire primary in South Carolina? By the way, Ferraro made a similar statement in 1984 about Jesse Jackson. She also stated that she whould not have been the VP nominee in 1984 if she had not been a woman. She can say this about herself, but maybe she should not speak for the millions of white and Latino people who have voted for Obama in the election so far.
New polls in Pennsylvania show Clinton maintaining a double digit lead. Obama has his work cut out in Pennsylvania if he wants to make it close. There is a significant amount of time, however as Pennsylvania's primary (the next primary) is on 26 April, so there is some time.
In other political news, Geraldine Ferraro resigned her position in the Clinton campaign, but not after stating that her statement “if Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position” was a "statement of fact". Apparently some version of this argument was repeated over the last few weeks in various media outlets. Most white voters support Obama not because he is black, but because they believe he is a leader, who can bring people together to get things done.
Is this similar to language used by Bill Clinton after New Hampshire primary in South Carolina? By the way, Ferraro made a similar statement in 1984 about Jesse Jackson. She also stated that she whould not have been the VP nominee in 1984 if she had not been a woman. She can say this about herself, but maybe she should not speak for the millions of white and Latino people who have voted for Obama in the election so far.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Obama has significant lead in Mississippi polls, primary is Tuesday
Polls show Obama with a significant lead in Mississippi on the eve of the primary there. Obama's lead in the polls range from 6-24% margin over the last 3 days. His margin, while likely to be high due to the African American vote, may be slightly be offset by Mississippi's proximity to Arkansas, where Clinton is very popular. My projection is Obama wins 63% of the vote in Mississippi.
And then on to Pennsylvania ...
And then on to Pennsylvania ...
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Obama Wins Wyoming Caucus
Obama won the Wyoming Caucus 61% to 38% on Saturday. Obama picked up 7 delegates and Clinton 4 delegates. Additional Mississippi polls show a strong lead for Obama and North Carolina polls show a weaker lead for Obama in North Carolina. No new polling data has been released for Pennsylvania.
The Wyoming victory for Obama means that Clinton has to win the remaining states by an average of 67% of the vote in order to secure a majority of pledged delegates, which will be exceedingly difficult. If Florida and Michigan revotes are included, then Clinton can win a majority of pledged delegates with 60% of remaining vote.
No delegate counts are in for Texas caucus yet, however with 41% of the caucus vote counted, Obama is leading 56% to 44%, which if it holds, would net Obama delegates for the combined primary and caucus in Texas.
The Wyoming victory for Obama means that Clinton has to win the remaining states by an average of 67% of the vote in order to secure a majority of pledged delegates, which will be exceedingly difficult. If Florida and Michigan revotes are included, then Clinton can win a majority of pledged delegates with 60% of remaining vote.
No delegate counts are in for Texas caucus yet, however with 41% of the caucus vote counted, Obama is leading 56% to 44%, which if it holds, would net Obama delegates for the combined primary and caucus in Texas.
Saturday, March 8, 2008
Wyoming Caucus is Today
There are no polls for the Wyoming caucus, so I have to go with the conventional wisdom and say that Obama will win this caucus, but the margin is difficult to predict given the upheaval in the Democratic race. However a recent poll shows Obama ahead in Mississippi by 46-40%.
There has been a lot of talk in the media about Clinton winning big states, or more important "swing" states, that some states are more important than others, and caucus states are not democratic, or that she would be more likely to win in November etc. This argument is presented by the Clinton campaign because it is becoming increasingly likely that the only way for Clinton to win the nomination is with a superdelegate solution - that is to have the superdelegates override the election results in the primaries and caucuses to win the nomination.
Currently Clinton will need to win 66% of the vote in the remaining contests if Florida and Michigan are not included in the delegate totals. If the Florda and Michigan contests are redone, Clinton will need 60% of the vote going forward. I have provided this calculation in the delegate tracking sheet on this site and will update it as additional contests occur. Assuming that the superdelegates do not override the popular vote totals, we will be able to say that Obama "clinches" the nomination once Clinton needs to win more than 100% of the remaining vote.
The Democratic nomination for president proportionally allocates delegates, and is not based on a "winner take all" allocation of delegates like the Republican nomination and General Election for president.
There has been a lot of talk in the media about Clinton winning big states, or more important "swing" states, that some states are more important than others, and caucus states are not democratic, or that she would be more likely to win in November etc. This argument is presented by the Clinton campaign because it is becoming increasingly likely that the only way for Clinton to win the nomination is with a superdelegate solution - that is to have the superdelegates override the election results in the primaries and caucuses to win the nomination.
Currently Clinton will need to win 66% of the vote in the remaining contests if Florida and Michigan are not included in the delegate totals. If the Florda and Michigan contests are redone, Clinton will need 60% of the vote going forward. I have provided this calculation in the delegate tracking sheet on this site and will update it as additional contests occur. Assuming that the superdelegates do not override the popular vote totals, we will be able to say that Obama "clinches" the nomination once Clinton needs to win more than 100% of the remaining vote.
The Democratic nomination for president proportionally allocates delegates, and is not based on a "winner take all" allocation of delegates like the Republican nomination and General Election for president.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Clinton Wins Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Obama Wins Vermont
Hillary Clinton won Ohio and Rhode Island by a larger margin than projected by this site, and won Texas by a slim margin (I had projected Obama by 4%). Clinton's margins were 18% in Rhode Island, 10% in Ohio, and 3% in Texas. Obama won Vermont by 18%, which was similar to my projection. Delegate counts for Texas have not been tallied, however for Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, Clinton has a net gain of 7 delegates, which may be offset by a gain in delegates by Obama in Texas.
Based on the a review of the recent polls, it appears that Clinton gained support in both Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas over the last few days, which is why she won the Texas primary and had a much higher margin than my projections (and some of the polls) for Ohio and Rhode Island. After reviewing the trends in the polls over the last week, it is apparent that Clinton was gaining support over the last few days. My projection for Texas for example, was based on average polls over the last 7 days and showed Obama with a 1 point lead. Average polls over the last 3 days showed Clinton with a 1% lead and average polls of 1 day showed Clinton with a 3% lead. Ohio did not show any significant change over that time, staying around 5-6% lead for Clinton, however the polls were all over the map over the last few days.
Given yesterday's results, I am going to adjust my projection formula so it will be more accurate in future projections. At this point I am leaning towards averaging polls over the last 3 days, unless no polls are available during that period I will take the latest poll available and use that. If no polls are available, I am using results from the last election cycle. Any comments are welcome on this formula, as I work to improve the projection model. I will post an update to the model shortly, along with an analysis of the net gain of delegates once they are determined in Texas.
Based on the a review of the recent polls, it appears that Clinton gained support in both Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas over the last few days, which is why she won the Texas primary and had a much higher margin than my projections (and some of the polls) for Ohio and Rhode Island. After reviewing the trends in the polls over the last week, it is apparent that Clinton was gaining support over the last few days. My projection for Texas for example, was based on average polls over the last 7 days and showed Obama with a 1 point lead. Average polls over the last 3 days showed Clinton with a 1% lead and average polls of 1 day showed Clinton with a 3% lead. Ohio did not show any significant change over that time, staying around 5-6% lead for Clinton, however the polls were all over the map over the last few days.
Given yesterday's results, I am going to adjust my projection formula so it will be more accurate in future projections. At this point I am leaning towards averaging polls over the last 3 days, unless no polls are available during that period I will take the latest poll available and use that. If no polls are available, I am using results from the last election cycle. Any comments are welcome on this formula, as I work to improve the projection model. I will post an update to the model shortly, along with an analysis of the net gain of delegates once they are determined in Texas.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Obama Maintains Lead in Texas, Clinton in Ohio, Delegate Projections Favor Obama However
Obama has a slim lead of about 2 points in Texas with Clinton holding a weak lead in Ohio of about 5 points. As a result I am projecting that Obama will win the Texas primary by a 4 point margin tomorrow, and Clinton will win the Ohio primary by a 4 point margin.
In order to estimate the number of delegates gained, we must understand the Texas system for selecting delegates to the Democratic Nomination. The Texas system includes a primary which voters will choose 126 delegates allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4. A caucus is then held for voters who voted in the primary after the polls close to chose 42 delegates. Texas also has 25 pledged "party delegates" allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention. Texas also has 35 unpledged "super delegates" of party and elected officials.
The number of delegates gained in each Texas senatorial district for the primary is determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential campaign and Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006. As a result, areas that are more likely to vote for Obama such as Dallas, Houston, Austin get more delegates than areas that have more Clinton support (Republican areas), which may result in Obama picking up significantly more delegates than his vote margin would suggest. This makes projecting the delegates gained very difficult.
So here goes with the delegate projections:
Texas:
Primary - Obama 73-53
Caucus - Obama 37-30*
Total Texas - Obama 110-83; Obama +27
* Caucus delegates are projected, however actual delegates for each candidate are selected at State Convention.
Ohio: Clinton 73, Obama 68; Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama 9, Clinton 6; Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton 12, Obama 9; Clinton +3
Total Delegate Margin March 4 Primaries/Caucuses: Obama 196, Clinton 174; Obama +22
I will update this estimate if new information or polls come in.
In order to estimate the number of delegates gained, we must understand the Texas system for selecting delegates to the Democratic Nomination. The Texas system includes a primary which voters will choose 126 delegates allocated based on the results of votes cast on March 4. A caucus is then held for voters who voted in the primary after the polls close to chose 42 delegates. Texas also has 25 pledged "party delegates" allocated by the presidential preference of delegates attending the State convention. Texas also has 35 unpledged "super delegates" of party and elected officials.
The number of delegates gained in each Texas senatorial district for the primary is determined by a formula that is based on the number of voters in each district who cast ballots for Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential campaign and Chris Bell, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006. As a result, areas that are more likely to vote for Obama such as Dallas, Houston, Austin get more delegates than areas that have more Clinton support (Republican areas), which may result in Obama picking up significantly more delegates than his vote margin would suggest. This makes projecting the delegates gained very difficult.
So here goes with the delegate projections:
Texas:
Primary - Obama 73-53
Caucus - Obama 37-30*
Total Texas - Obama 110-83; Obama +27
* Caucus delegates are projected, however actual delegates for each candidate are selected at State Convention.
Ohio: Clinton 73, Obama 68; Clinton +5
Vermont: Obama 9, Clinton 6; Obama +3
Rhode Island: Clinton 12, Obama 9; Clinton +3
Total Delegate Margin March 4 Primaries/Caucuses: Obama 196, Clinton 174; Obama +22
I will update this estimate if new information or polls come in.
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