The new Vote Projections is here at www.voteprojections.com! Check it out by clicking on the link.

Vote Projections 2010 Coming Soon!

The new and improved Vote Projections 2010 is coming soon. I am currently redesigning the site to be more inclusive of election results, including historical election results. The data will be stored in a database that will be easier to update.

So check back soon!

-VoteProjector

Obama Sworn in as 44th President of the United States

President Obama was sworn in as the 44th President of the United States today at approximately 12 noon today. President Obama's inaugural speach touched on several fronts, including discussion of an "era of responsibility" for Americans, and several distinctions between former President G. W. Bush's policies, such as restoring America's stature in the world, rejecting as false the choice between our safety and our ideals, the importance of debating "good" government instead of the the size of government.

President Obama then traveled by limousine from the Capital to the White House, walking along the route twice. The President then viewed the inaugoral parade and made appearances at several inaguaral balls. Tomorrow, the business of the White House starts with several executive orders being issued. President Obama's new web site was made available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/.

Obama Elected 44th President of the United States

Barack Obama is projected to be elected the 44th President of the United States. He will be sworn in on January 20, 2009. Congratulations to Obama, President Elect on this historic day!

Final Vote Projection for 2008

Well, we are now down to the final day of the 2008 campaign. The presidential races in the states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania has tightened. Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado still show Obama with leads. McCain can not win without winning two of these states (and he must also win Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina. Florida and Ohio are projected to be barely Obama, however today's polls show the race tied. The projection formula shows North Carolina and Missouri as tossups. If I have to pick a winner I would say North Carolina goes to Obama and Missouri to McCain.

The final Vote Projections 2008 projections are as follows:

PRESIDENT (EVs): OBAMA 338, MCCAIN 174, TOSSUP 26

2008 SENATE PROJECTION: DEM 56 +7, REP 42 -7, IND 2 +0

2008 HOUSE PROJECTION: DEM 250 +14, REP 180 -19, TOSSUPS 5

2008 GOVERNOR PROJECTION: DEM 31 +1, REP 19 -1

Join me on election night as I update the map with actual results as they come in.

Vote Projections for 2 November 2008

The presidential race is tightening a little over the weekend as we are only two days from election day. Obama still leads in the key swing states of Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, however the lead is down to 5 or lower in these states. One metric to consider is whether the polls have Obama over 50% in a state. If he is at this state in the election, history says he will win that state. If you look back at the 2004 race, Kerry was not over 50% in Ohio, Florida. He currently has polls in most of the swing states showing him over 50%.

So, here is the bottom line. If on election day, Obama carries Virginia and Colorado, he will be the next president of the United States even if he does not win Florida and Ohio (which is is currently ahead in the polling anyway). Right now, his chances look better in Colorado than Virginia, so but we will likely find out the results of Virginia first on Tuesday.

Vote Projections for 29 October 2008

The Presidential race is pretty stable with Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado plus all of the "blue" states from 2004 in Obama's column. Ohio, Florida, Montana and Nevada are barely Obama (<5% margin), and North Carolina, Missouri are tossups. If all the "leaning Obama" and tossup states ended up going for McCain, Obama would still win the election with 270 electoral votes. This is the reason McCain keeps on campaining in states that he is losing by double digits like Pennsylvania and Virginia. Also goes with the McCain approach. He likes to "roll the dice" as Obama has said.

There is movement towards the Democrates in the House of Representitives projection has increased to a net gain of 15 seats for Democrates, with 4 seats rated as tossups.

Vote Projections for 27 October 2008

Only 8 days until election day and time is running out for McCain. Polls released over the weekend do not show a significant change, however several of the states have stabilized in tossup mode, such as North Dakota, Missouri, and North Carolina. So Obama has dipped a little but McCain has not gained any electoral votes. Virginia, Colorado appear to be still strong for Obama and McCain has essentially stopped competing there. McCain seems to be still competing strongly in Pennsylvania, despite double digit leads by Obama in PA polls. the McCain camp is doing some infighting and the blame game is starting. If there is not a signficant change in the polls over the next 3 days, it will not likely turn for McCain over the weekend.

Vote Projections for 23 October 2008

Lots of polls released today. Most notable is Indiana giving Obama a 10 point lead. A poll also has Obama ahead by 4 in Montana. So Obama has double digit leads in all "blue states" that Kerry won except New Hampshire (7 point lead). He also has double digit leads in the following "red states" - Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Indiana. For Ohio and Indiana, we will have to see if this lead holds. He has single digit leads in Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, and New Hampshire. The remaining states in play, Obama leads by <5 points (Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada. This is the current state of the race.

In the mean time, McCain keeps on hammering away on his mis-statement that Obama will raise taxes on "Joe the Plummer". Apparently he has said it so many times that nobody challenges it anymore. Obama is now visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Obama is for the most part campaigning only in the new former "red" swing states - Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Nevada. The interesting thing is Florida, which was recently considered too red to win by the Democrates, has now become potentially more winnable than Ohio.

Vote Projections for 18 October 2008

The Presidential election has settled down for now, with the key battleground states being Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. Look for the candidates to spend most of their time there in the last few weeks before November 4. Pennwylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and New Mexico appear to be Strong Obama and out of reach of McCain. Three other states could be added to the swing states as well (West Virginia, North Dakota and Georgia), but they are not there yet. New polls, while not tipping the projection to McCain in these states show ties in North Dakota and Ohio and McCain ahead by 2 in Flordia. Too soon to know if this is a trend.

In the Senate, we are now at 7 Dem seats gained and one tie. House now stands to gain 15 Dems and for Governors, the 2 seat gain by Republicans is now back to 0 (Washington and North Carolina back in Dem column).

Presidential Debate 3

Senators Obama and McCain participated in the third and last debate of the 2008 campaign at Hoffstra University in Hempstead, NY. Although McCain may have had his strongest debate night, his performance was marked by signficant attacks on Obama, while Obama remained calm and cool. McCain often looked irritated, a little angry. The overall result was instant polls had Obama winning the debate, which may say more about who the polled folks support more than the performance of each candidate.

Several false statements by McCain were repeated during the debate including "Obama is going to raise your taxes" (not true for 95% of people), Obama "launched his campaign in William Ayers living room" (not true), ACORN "destroying the fabric of American democracy".

Obama's goal was to play the debate conservatively since he has a lead in the polls. Overall, there was no game changer in this debate. Only 16 days until Election Day!

Vote Projections for 15 October 2008

The trend to Obama continues. A couple surprising polls that I failed to mention last post was West Virginia (Obama by 8) and North Dakota (Obama by 2). Today we have Obama tied in North Carolina and Barely Obama in Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and North Dakota. If you take away the "Barley" states (1-4% lead), Obama wins with 336 EVs (270 needed to win).

In the Senate, Obama coattails may be having an effect. The current projection is that Dems will pick up 8 seats, however some of the races are very close. In addition, Saxby Chambliss (R, GA) is looking vulnerable against Martin (D). The closest races are Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Georgia.

Vote Projections for 9 October 2008

No significant changes in projections for President over the last few days. Missouri switches to Barely McCain with a new ARG poll showing McCain up by 3 points. North Carolina is still Barely McCain, however a new poll from Rassmussen has Obama ahead in North Carolina by 1 point. In Indiana, a new Rassmussen poll shows McCain widening his lead to 7 points (50%-43%), so Indiana switches to Weak McCain. We will have to see whether this is an outlier or whether McCain has a larger lead in Indiana. Colorado switches from Barely Obama to Weak Obama with a 6 point lead (51%-45%) in the latest Insider Advantage / Poll Position.

There are no major changes in the Senate, House or Governor races.

Second Presidential Debate - Nashville Tennessee

Barack Obama and John McCain debated in Nashville in a town hall format. There was minimal involvement by the audience. Despite what the pundits predicted, Obama seemed very comfortable in the setting, while McCain looked nervous, and a little uncomfortable, referring to Obama as "that one", striving to control himself from getting too irritated. McCain was quite aggressive, but the debate was not the game changer that McCain needed to change the race. Overall, Obama won the debate, as will be shown in the instant polls and other polls that will come out over the next days. The third and final debate was October 15 at Hoffstra University, Hempstead, NY that focuses on domestic policy.

Vote Projections for Tuesday, October 7 2008

Obama continues to lead in most swing states on the eve of the second Presidential debate today. His lead is surprisingly strong in Virginia, where he has a 10 point lead in the latest poll. His leads in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada are small, 1-5 points, however these states were leaning McCain less than a month ago. North Carolina flips to McCain, but only by 2 points (the previous poll had them tied).

Look for McCain to take risks with the debate to try to shake up the race since he is behind. McCain may even go on the attack even though the pundits think that you can't do that in the town hall format in Nashville Tennessee. Check back later for my assessment of who won the debate.

Vice Presidential Debate - Biden vs. Palin

Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin debated on the campus of Washington University, St. Louis Missouri tonight. Palin was under alot of pressure to perform well due to her performance with interviews with Katie Couric and Charles Gibson over the last month. Palin held her own and probably alleviated concerns by the Republican base. Palin was folksy, but on the facts and issues, the debate goes to Biden. And according to a CNN poll, Biden won the debate 51%-36% among people who watched the debate. Overall, the debate probably did not do much for McCain but did resuscitate her image for Conservatives. However for Independents, Democrats, her image may already be too far gone.

Presidental state polls now show Obama ahead in all swing states (defined as New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada. He also has a slim lead in North Carolina.

Vote Projections for 1 October 2008

There were numerous State polls released today for President. Most polls show a significant trend towards Obama that is shifting all "swing" States into his column, and even shows Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio. Missouri is now rated as a tossup now. The most dramatic polls are from Quinnipaic University, which has Obama up in Pennsylvania by 15 points (54%-39%), and Obama up in Florida by 8 points (51%-43%). While these polls may be outliers, they confirm the trend and it is not a good one for McCain. Nationally, Obama is ahead by about 5 points.

The trend to Obama appears to be due to several areas. First, the economic crisis benefits Obama, which contributed to Obama's poll surge late last week. Second, McCain was erratic in his response to the economic crisis, suspending his campaign, then not really contributing much to the process, saying he would not debate, then saying he would debate. Third and most importantly, Obama won the debate according to the American people because he looked Presidential, showed he would stand up to McCain on foreign policy and that he had a good understanding of foreign policy. This was a surprise to some in the press who thought McCain won (certainly some in press said Obama won). Lastly, the Sarah Palin factor - she has lost significant credibility due to her interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric, particularly the Couric interview as her responses to questions were used almost verbatim by Tina Faye in SNL, which showed her responding in an almost incoherent way. All this has put Obama ahead in most of the swing states.

Tomorrow is the Vice Presidential debate which will be make or break for Palin.

Presidential Debate 1 - Oxford Mississippi

Senators Obama and McCain participated in the first Presidential debate held in Oxford Mississippi. Senator Obama held his own and more in foreign policy and took control of the debate for the most part and passed the Commander in Chief test. McCain was more emotional but looked uncomfortable on the stage and called Obama naive and said he lacked the knowledge and experience to be president. Is he shifting back to campaigning on "experience" rather than change? What was surprising however, was the fact that McCain attended the debate at all. McCain changed his position earlier today and decided to attend the debate even though an agreement on the banking deal was not imminent. McCain There appears to be a pattern of unpredictability here with the McCain campaign, and this effort appears to have backfired according to several conservative commentators.

Now to the latest polls, a new Rassmussen poll in Virginia has Obama leading 50-45%, accordingly Virginia now moves from tossup to weak Obama.

In the Senate, new polls now show Merkley (D) ahead of Smith (R) in the Oregon Senate race, increasing the Senate gains to 6 seats.

Vote Projections for 25 September 2008

McCain suspends campaign? Yes, John McCain said he was suspending his campaign to work on the $700 billion financial industry bailout legislation and he said he may not show up for the debate on Friday if Congress does not pass a bill. Will Obama have to debate by himself in Mississippi tomorrow?

The polls are now moving Obama's way, which may have been why we saw McCain's "Hail Mary" pass to suspend his campaign and pospone the debate. A couple of changes to the presidential projections today. North Carolina is now rated a tossup, as a new poll has Obama ahead bo 2 points coupled with a poll earlier in the week that had McCain ahead by 3 points. Colorado has a new poll showing Obama ahead by 9 points. Ohio is very close, either tied or McCain by 1, but Ohio stays at Weak McCain for now.

In the Senate projections, one change is Begich (D) is now leading Ted Stephens (R) for Senate in Alaska by 50-44% according to the most recent poll. Ted Stephens' trial for corruption started today in Federal court.

Vote Projections Updated 22 September 2008

Polls now show Obama pulling away from McCain in National polls, with most polls showing Obama ahead by 5 points. In the state polls, Virginia is trending to Obama and Colorado has a poll with Obama ahead by 10 points. We will have to see if this holds. If this trend continues, Obama will be in a good position and would not have to pick up Ohio or Florida to win the nomination. Pennsylvania remains close but still shows Obama ahead by about 3 points. Ohio and Florida are still showing McCain ahead by about 5 points.

In the Senate Hagan (D) is now ahead of Dole (R) for the North Carolina Senate seat, resulting in Democrats picking up a projected 6 seats.