Poll Shows Obama Ahead in Nevada

For the first time since March, Obama is polling ahead in Nevada according to a Rassmusson poll released today showing Obama with 47% and McCain with 45%. In other polls, Obama leads McCain in Washington State by a 55 to 39%. McCain continues to hold a lead in Arkansas 52-39% according to the latest Rassmussen poll.

In the Senate, Elizabeth Dole maintains a comfortable lead over her opponent in North Carolina of 54-43%. Senate is projected as 54 DEM, 54 REP, 1 IND, 1 Tossup.

California vs. Kansas

Two interesting polls came out today that show that the most solid blue and red states have really significant poll margins for the presidential race. A new poll by the Field Poll has Obama up in California by a 24 point margin (54-30%), while Rasmussen has McCain up in Kansas by a 23 point margin (58-35%). While the California margin is about what it was a month ago, the Kansas margin has increased from a 13 point margin just a week ago. So is this going to be another election where some parts of the country love Obama (i.e. the coasts and midwest) and others can't connect at all with him? What this points out is that California will definately be off-limits to McCain, and Kansas - well for all you folks who have read the book "What's the Matter with Kansas" know why Obama is not doing well there. Obama may change the rules about red states and blue states but that change will not likely extend to places like Kansas.

New polls came out for the Senate races in North Carolina, Kansas and Oregon, all Republican incumbents. Dole and Roberts are comfortably ahead in North Carolina and Kansas, and in Oregon and Gorden Smith (R) and Merkely (D) are dead heat at 46% each. So I have one Tossup in my projections with Democrats gaining 4 seats, and would likely pick up 5 seats if Gordan Smith loses Oregon's Senate seat.

Obama Maintains Polls Lead in Swing States

Barack Obama has continued to maintain consistent but small leads in the polls for all of the traditional "swing states" from the last two presidential elections except Florida, plus Virginia and Colorado for well over 6 weeks now. He is also maintaining about a 5-point lead in the national polls. Over the last week, Obama has also added states such as Montana. Missouri is currently projected as a tossup, with two conflicting polls.

My current prediction for Democratic Veep is 1) Tim Kaine (Gov. VA); 2) Bill Richardson; 3) Hillary Clinton (Sen. NY) ranked in order of most likely to least likely. For the Republicans prediction is 1) Mitt Romney; 2) Tim Pawlenty (Gov. MN); Charlie Crist.

The House projections are now up and running, with Democrats projected to pick up 5 seats. Senate projection steady with Democrats picking up 4 seats.