Barack Obama won the North Carolina Democratic Primary 56% to 42%, a decisive victory for him on Tuesday. The Indiana primary was surprisingly close, with Clinton winning by about 14,000 votes as the contest was too close to call until after midnight. Since Obama exceeded expectations in both states, these contests all but assured Obama the electoral vote and the nomination. The Tuesday primaries put Obama within 177 delegates of winning the 2024 delegates needed to win the nomination (including superdelegates). To win a majority of the pledged delegates, Clinton would have to win 84% of the remaining pledged delegates.
Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign over $6 million last month and is in financial trouble as well, however she vowed to fight on. Look for her to quit the race by early June, or the superdelegates will push her out by then.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Monday, May 5, 2008
North Carolina and Indiana - After tomorrow the last significant delegates are of the super variety
As we have learned over this long primary campaign, interpretation of trends over the last day or so are critical when projecting results in the Democratic Primary. This clearly was the case in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania where Clinton gained support over the last day or so. Current polls indicate a very slight shift towards Obama in Indiana and towards Clinton in North Carolina. My projection is Obama +8 in North Carolina and Clinton +6 in Indiana.
A split tomorrow will be considered a win for Obama, even though it means Hillary will continue. This is because Obama is closing in on the magic number of 2024 delegates needed to win (he currently needs 268. There still is a constant trickle of Superdelegates endorsing Obama, even with several endorsing Clinton (5-2 in favor of Obama over the weekend). Assuming Obama picks up 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he would only need 75 of the remaining 268 uncommitted Superdelegates to win.
Once tomorrow is over the Superdelegates have enough information to select a candidate - will they do so or wait to the last minute?
A split tomorrow will be considered a win for Obama, even though it means Hillary will continue. This is because Obama is closing in on the magic number of 2024 delegates needed to win (he currently needs 268. There still is a constant trickle of Superdelegates endorsing Obama, even with several endorsing Clinton (5-2 in favor of Obama over the weekend). Assuming Obama picks up 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he would only need 75 of the remaining 268 uncommitted Superdelegates to win.
Once tomorrow is over the Superdelegates have enough information to select a candidate - will they do so or wait to the last minute?
Friday, April 25, 2008
Who is stronger in November - Clinton or Obama?
Over the last days since Hillary Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania, Hillary and her talking head supporters have been trying to make several argument to the superdelegates and public on why she should be nominated, despite an insurmountable lead by Obama in the pledged delegates.
One of her arguments is that Hillary is stronger in the general election because she won Pennsylvania and Ohio (she even had Lanny Davis on CNN stating that the latest poll has Obama losing to McCain in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts - check the map on this site to see the latest poll showing Obama ahead against McCain in both those states). The New York Times has an article yesterday based on an analysis of the exit poll data show that Obama would likely pick up majorities and win against McCain in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As this site demonstrates, state matchups for Obama and Clinton against McCain shows a close race for both Obama and Clinton against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania polls. While Obama is slightly behind in Ohio according to the latest poll, Obama has several states that he would likely have an easier time winning than Clinton, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia. Once the primary is over and the Democrats come together to support one candidate, Obama will likely improve his support in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don't buy MSNBCs exit polling data indicating that about 50% of Clinton supporters would not vote for Obama in November - this is a response to the heated primary, Clinton supporters should come around to support Obama eventually. Furthermore, one has to consider that independents could not vote in Pennsylvania, and the recent surge in Democratic voters should help the Democratic nominee as well.
Hillary Clinton now says she has more overall votes than Obama by counting Michigan and Florida votes, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both states were disqualified and no campaigning was conducted in these states. As we all know Obama continues to hold the lead in the popular vote and pledged delegates for all states with fair contests. The Florida and Michigan results are no better that the latest SurveyUSA opinion polls.
Clinton supports have repeated on the talk shows over and over again that since the general election uses a state winner take all system, that superdelegates should consider who wins if the rules were changed to reflect the electory system used in the general election. The idea is that Obama would not win any of the states he lost to Clinton in November. This claim does not hold water either, no comparison can be made between the primaries and the general election.
Bottom line is I believe Obama will be the stronger candidate in November against McCain. Most Americans, Democrates, Republicans and Independents alike agree with this.
One of her arguments is that Hillary is stronger in the general election because she won Pennsylvania and Ohio (she even had Lanny Davis on CNN stating that the latest poll has Obama losing to McCain in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts - check the map on this site to see the latest poll showing Obama ahead against McCain in both those states). The New York Times has an article yesterday based on an analysis of the exit poll data show that Obama would likely pick up majorities and win against McCain in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As this site demonstrates, state matchups for Obama and Clinton against McCain shows a close race for both Obama and Clinton against McCain. Both Obama and Clinton are ahead of McCain in Pennsylvania polls. While Obama is slightly behind in Ohio according to the latest poll, Obama has several states that he would likely have an easier time winning than Clinton, including Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and Virginia. Once the primary is over and the Democrats come together to support one candidate, Obama will likely improve his support in Pennsylvania and Ohio. I don't buy MSNBCs exit polling data indicating that about 50% of Clinton supporters would not vote for Obama in November - this is a response to the heated primary, Clinton supporters should come around to support Obama eventually. Furthermore, one has to consider that independents could not vote in Pennsylvania, and the recent surge in Democratic voters should help the Democratic nominee as well.
Hillary Clinton now says she has more overall votes than Obama by counting Michigan and Florida votes, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both states were disqualified and no campaigning was conducted in these states. As we all know Obama continues to hold the lead in the popular vote and pledged delegates for all states with fair contests. The Florida and Michigan results are no better that the latest SurveyUSA opinion polls.
Clinton supports have repeated on the talk shows over and over again that since the general election uses a state winner take all system, that superdelegates should consider who wins if the rules were changed to reflect the electory system used in the general election. The idea is that Obama would not win any of the states he lost to Clinton in November. This claim does not hold water either, no comparison can be made between the primaries and the general election.
Bottom line is I believe Obama will be the stronger candidate in November against McCain. Most Americans, Democrates, Republicans and Independents alike agree with this.
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