President: Several polls out today - no significant changes except that Colorado is now put back into Obama's column with the 50-47% poll by Rassmussen taken around 21 July. Montana has a new poll showing Obama and McCain tied at 47 a piece. Ohio is now narrowly back to Obama (46-44%) with a new poll out by Quinnipaic. This suggests that the previous Ohio poll showing McCain ahead by 10% was likely an anomaly. In Florida however, Obama maintains a 2 point lead in a poll by Quinnipaic, suggesting that the previous poll showing the race tightening there may be correct. McCain had held about a 6 point margin in Florida for several weeks prior. Overall, Obama is showing small gains from his Middle East and Europe trip, which was to be expected given McCain's lackluster performance during Obama's trip.
Senate: The most significant poll shows that Risch (R) is ahead of LaRocco (D) by 10 points in the Idaho Senate seat being vacated by Larry Craig. No other changes to Senate projections.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Two polls from Rasmussen came out today showing Ohio and Florida have flipped sides in the Presidential Race. In Ohio, McCain is ahead 52-42 and in Florida, Obama is now ahead by 2 points (within the margin of error). Previously Obama was ahead in Ohio by about 2 points, and McCain was ahead in Florda by about 6. The Ohio poll is a little surprising, however last week's polls do show a little improvement in McCain's poll numbers. Obama's numbers will likely improve next week due to Obama's overseas trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel and Europe. Obama is ahead in projected electoral votes by 328 to 208.
No change in Senate projections.
No change in Senate projections.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
No significant changes in presidential polls today except the Virginia race for president has a poll from Rassmussen showing McCain ahead 48-47%. Last poll in June had Obama ahead 49-47%, so this race is very tight. Obama leads McCain by 320 EVs to 215 EVs.
Senate projection has not changed with DEMs picking up 4 seats with the Oregon race still rated as a tossup. Senate races in Maine, Virginia show Susan Collins and Mark Warner with comfortable leads. A poll by Strategic Vision (Republican affiliated pollster) shows Senator Frank Loutenberg with a comfortable lead in New Jersey, however partison polls are not used in any projections to assure that there is no bias in the polls.
Senate projection has not changed with DEMs picking up 4 seats with the Oregon race still rated as a tossup. Senate races in Maine, Virginia show Susan Collins and Mark Warner with comfortable leads. A poll by Strategic Vision (Republican affiliated pollster) shows Senator Frank Loutenberg with a comfortable lead in New Jersey, however partison polls are not used in any projections to assure that there is no bias in the polls.
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