Obama Regains Lead Against McCain in Projected Electoral Votes

Obama has a narrow lead in electoral votes, 263 to 259, based on the latest polls for the first time since early March. He has achieved this as a result of new polls by SurveyUSA showing Obama ahead in Ohio and Virginia (however I have Virginia rated as a tossup due to a poll 2 days earlier showing McCain ahead).

Obama is now ahead in the polls in the following "swing states" as defined during the 2004 election cycle: Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico. Obama is also ahead in Colorado.

In the Democratic nominating contest, Hillary Clinton was interviewed in South Dakota and made a statement that appeared to indicate that she was staying in the race because of the possibility that Obama could be assassinated. This statement, even though Clinton did not mean to say it likely is the final nail in the coffin for Hillary's campaign for Vice President (she has already effectively lost the nominating fight for President after clinching the pledged delegate majority with a win in Oregon). Now that does not mean that the Obama campaign will not talk to Hillary about the VP position. There are alot of Democrats who want to see Hillary on the ticket, however this option can not be excercised due to her high negatives and the fact that it would take away from Obama's change message.

Obama is likely to consider the following VPs: Ted Strickland, Governor of Ohio; Tim Kaine, Governor of Virginia; Jim Webb, Senator of Virginia; Chuck Hagel, Republican Senator of Nebraska (surprise); Sam Nunn, former Senator of Georgia.

Obama Wins Decisive Victory in North Carolina, Clinton Barely Wins in Indiana

Barack Obama won the North Carolina Democratic Primary 56% to 42%, a decisive victory for him on Tuesday. The Indiana primary was surprisingly close, with Clinton winning by about 14,000 votes as the contest was too close to call until after midnight. Since Obama exceeded expectations in both states, these contests all but assured Obama the electoral vote and the nomination. The Tuesday primaries put Obama within 177 delegates of winning the 2024 delegates needed to win the nomination (including superdelegates). To win a majority of the pledged delegates, Clinton would have to win 84% of the remaining pledged delegates.

Hillary Clinton loaned her campaign over $6 million last month and is in financial trouble as well, however she vowed to fight on. Look for her to quit the race by early June, or the superdelegates will push her out by then.

North Carolina and Indiana - After tomorrow the last significant delegates are of the super variety

As we have learned over this long primary campaign, interpretation of trends over the last day or so are critical when projecting results in the Democratic Primary. This clearly was the case in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania where Clinton gained support over the last day or so. Current polls indicate a very slight shift towards Obama in Indiana and towards Clinton in North Carolina. My projection is Obama +8 in North Carolina and Clinton +6 in Indiana.

A split tomorrow will be considered a win for Obama, even though it means Hillary will continue. This is because Obama is closing in on the magic number of 2024 delegates needed to win (he currently needs 268. There still is a constant trickle of Superdelegates endorsing Obama, even with several endorsing Clinton (5-2 in favor of Obama over the weekend). Assuming Obama picks up 50% of the remaining pledged delegates, he would only need 75 of the remaining 268 uncommitted Superdelegates to win.

Once tomorrow is over the Superdelegates have enough information to select a candidate - will they do so or wait to the last minute?