So it is Clinton and McCain in Florida

Now that Clinton and McCain won in Florida, we are all looking ahead to Super Tuesday a week from now. The big question is which party will have a presidential candidate first? The next week will be a time of reflection among Democratic voters as to which candidate will hold up the best in the general election against McCain?

It will likely be decided by Latino voters, which will play a significant role in several key battleground states such as Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada.

McCain and Romney in tight race in Florida

McCain has at most a 1 percentage point lead in Florida according to my analysis. So I am rating this election a tossup with a slight edge to McCain.

Obama Wins Decisively in South Carolina

Obama has won a decisive victory in South Carolina, which was expected. The final tally was 55% Obama, 27% Clinton, and 18% Edwards. The average polls in South Carolina over the last week were surprisingly consistent in their support for Clinton at 26%, and Edwards at 18%. This suggests that most of the undecided vote ended up supporting Obama. The media described Obama's win as "overwhelming", "crushing", "lopsided" and "commanding", however given what happened in New Hampshire, nobody was writing Hillary's obituary yet.

While Obama has a small lead in delegates from primaries and caucuses (63 to 48), Clinton still has a similar lead when super delegates are included (235 to 155). However, the current polls show significant leads by Clinton in most Super Tuesday states with the exception of Georgia and Colorado, where Obama has slim leads.

So Clinton would really have to have a meltdown to lose the nomination at this point.