Vote Projections 20 September 2008

Barack Obama has regained the electoral vote projection based on polls released yesterday showing Obama has leads in Pennsylvania and Iowa (previously tossups). In Ohio, a new poll shows Obama ahead by 2 points, but based on the last week of polling, the projection is now a tossup. Overall this was a good week for Obama for several reasons. First was the economic news which favors Obama. Second, the "Palin Factor" was wearing off, and third, the negative attacks from McCain and the perception that he was being dishonest or lying may have also affected McCain's slide.

No significant changes to the Senate, House or Governor projections.

Vote Projections for 11 September 2008

The candidates took a break today from campaigning to meet together at Ground Zero. But that did not stop the polls from coming in. McCain is now projected to pick up Ohio, Florida, which means the electoral map is now the same as the 2004 election except for Iowa and Colorado which are projected for Obama. Clearly hype from Sarah Palin has given McCain gains in the polls - it remains to be seen how long this effect lasts. Historically with this election, McCain has gained until he broke even with Obama, and then typically McCain loses ground. Could this be a cycle here?

There is a change in the Governor projections with Repoblican candidates pulling ahead for North Carolina and Washington.

RNC Convention - Day 1

Not much to report on at the Republican National Convention as Hurricane Gustav forced Republicans to cancel most activities of their first day of their convention. This is because they were concerned of the public relations nightmare if Gustav caused major damage, given the performance of the current administration during Katrina.

The major story of the day was Vice President candidate Sarah Palin's 17 year old teanage daughter is 5 months pregnant. This seams to have no effect on the enthusiasm by the religious right wing of the Republican Party, who absolutely adore her, despite her lack of experience. There is some concern that Palin may not have been properly vetted by McCain, raising questions about his first major decision of his campaign. (Palin is currently under investigation for firing an Alaska public safety officer for refusing to fire a trooper who was her former brother-in-law (the trooper was divorcing her sister).

The latest tracking polls released today show Obama 6-9 points ahead of McCain in National polls, with Obama over 50% for the first time. Obama is also now ahead in Ohio and Florida by one point, for a lead of 313 electoral votes for Obama and 219 electoral-votes for McCain.