Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania, margin in single digits

Hillary Clinton won Pennsylvania, for a net gain of about 15 delegates. The margin of victory was a little higher than the latest polls, 55-45%. This sets up the next primarys, on May 5 in North Carolina, where Obama is favored by about 15%, and Indiana where he is favored by 5%.

Mr. Obama will likely make up all of the delegates he lost in Pennsylvania and then some if he wins North Carolina and/or Indiana. This scenario virtually guarantees that Obama will win the pledged delegate count - with only 445 pledged delegates left she has to win 67% of the remaining pledged delegates to surpass Obama in this category.

It is also increasingly unlikely that he will not win the popular vote, even if Florida results are factored in, unless she wins Indiana and keeps North Carolina very close, which is not likely to be case. As has been the case since March, the odds of Clinton winning the nomination remain very low.

Obama takes train ride from Philadelphia to Harrisburg

Barack Obama and Senator Bob Casey took a train ride from Philadelphia to Harrisburg, with a stop in Paoli, PA where he spoke at the train station. The polls in Pennsylvania have narrowed significantly, with Clinton leading Obama by 3-4 points.

Obama is now leading in Indiana by 5 points and North Carolina by 15 points. Obama is also leading against Clinton and McCain in national polls as well.

Clinton has been doing more damage to herself by going on the attack and getting press for her negative attacks, which mutes any damage that the original controversy has had. As a result, after about 4 days of attacks, Obama generally gains ground on Clinton.

Howard Dean, the DNC Chairman said that he needs Superdelegates to start making their choice for president now and he sees no reason why all Superdelegates could not make their choice by June 3 when the last primary is held. This approach would allow a nominee to be determined by some time in May, if the Superdelegates cooporated.

Check back soon for a state by state summary of competetive races and projections.

Projections are made using the latest polls, using an average of the latest polls over the last 10 days (using the approximate mid point of the polling period as the date of the poll). If no polls exist within the last 10 days, then the latest poll is used to project the race. If there are no polls at all, then the actual results from the last election cycle are used to project the race.